Prasain et al. (2026) Coupled climate–land use change impacts on the water–food nexus using the soil and water assessment tool plus (SWAT+): Application to the Condamine–Balonne River Basin, Australia

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-16
• Authors: Suresh Prasain, Tek Maraseni, Thong Nguyen-Huy, Manish Shrivastab, Rajesh Khatakho
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110791

Research Groups

• Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, Agriculture and Forestry University, Chitwan, Nepal
• Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CSAS), University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
• School of Surveying and Built Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
• Institute of Life Sciences and the Environment (ILSE), University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
• Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
• Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Iowa State University College of Engineering, Elings Hall, 1340, 605 Bissell Rd, Ames, IA, 50011, United States
• School of Environmental, Civil, Agricultural & Mechanical Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
• School of Science, Engineering and Digital Technologies, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
• Faculty of Information Technology, Thanh Do University, Kim Chung, Hoai Duc, Ha Noi 100000, Vietnam

Short Summary

This study evaluates the impacts of climate-only (CC) and combined climate–land use change (CLUC) on water availability and agricultural productivity in the Condamine–Balonne River Basin (CBRB), Australia. The results show a progressive shift from blue-water availability towards greater atmospheric demand and green-water consumption, intensifying irrigation pressure, recharge constraints, and agricultural vulnerability.

Objective

• Evaluate the impacts of climate-only (CC) and combined climate–land use change (CLUC) on water availability and agricultural productivity in the Condamine–Balonne River Basin (CBRB), Australia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study area covers approximately 17,000 km² in central CBRB, spanning the lower Condamine River and upper Balonne River within the Surat Groundwater Basin (SGB) of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB).
• Temporal Scale: The study evaluates long-term changes over eight future decades from the 2030 s to the 2100 s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+)
• Data sources:
  • Topography: DEM 3 arc-second global coverage (90 m spatial resolution)
  • Watershed delineation: Soil 90 m resolution soil properties maps of Australia
  • Climate change: Bias-adjusted CanESM2 projections under CMIP5 RCP4.5
  • Land use change: LUTO model projections and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model

Main Results

• Under CC, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased by 16.94% and 10.66%, respectively.
• Surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and lateral flow declined by 26.74%, 10.73%, and 24.26%, respectively.
• Blue water decreased from 195.41 to 143.96 mm yr⁻¹ (−26.33%).
• Under CLUC, PET and AET increased by 19.94% and 11.55%, respectively.
• Surface runoff, groundwater recharge, lateral flow, and blue water declined by 27.78%, 12.54%, 28.15%, and 27.84%, respectively.
• Major crop yields declined by approximately 12% in the 2030 s and 33% by the 2100 s.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of CC and CLUC on water availability and agricultural productivity in the CBRB, Australia.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both climate and land use change when evaluating future hydrological and agricultural systems.

Funding

• Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Program (ACLUMP)
• Commonwealth Environmental Water Office (CEWO)
• Department of Local Government, Water and Volunteers (DLGWV)
• Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC)

Citation

@article{Prasain2026Coupled,
  author = {Prasain, Suresh and Maraseni, Tek and Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Shrivastab, Manish and Khatakho, Rajesh},
  title = {Coupled climate–land use change impacts on the water–food nexus using the soil and water assessment tool plus (SWAT+): Application to the Condamine–Balonne River Basin, Australia},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110791},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110791}
}