Guo et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of water resource, socioeconomic, and ecosystem coupling in Xinjiang's oases

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-24
• Authors: Xinran Guo, Xingming Hao, Zulipiya Kulaixi, Mengtao Ci, Qixiang Liang, Fan Sun, Xue Fan, Haibin Xiong, Jinfan Xu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110809

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of water resource, socioeconomic, and ecosystem coupling in Xinjiang's oases from 1999 to 2023. The results show that the average coupling coordination degree is 0.542, indicating a barely coordinated state.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the WES system across different oasis units in Xinjiang.
• Examine the dynamic interactions and driving mechanisms among subsystems.
• Identify key factors contributing to the WES coupling and coordination of oasis clusters.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Oasis units, divided into four major regions based on baseline conditions (southern slope of the Altay Mountains, northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and northern foothills of the Kunlun Mountains).
• Temporal Scale: 1999-2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM)
  • Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model
  • Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model
• Data sources: International open platforms, including the National Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Science Data Centre, National Ecological Science Data Centre, Zenodo, and NASA Earthdata Search.

Main Results

• The average CCD of the 83 oasis units was 0.542, falling within the "barely coordinated" range (0.5 ≤D < 0.6).
• Water resource scores for all four major oasis clusters declined, while socio-economic scores increased.
• Ecological scores increased in all four regions.
• The three subsystems exhibit significant bidirectional Granger causality at the 1% significance level.

Contributions

• This study provides a scientific basis for the differentiated management of water resources in Xinjiang's oases and for the sustainable development of agriculture.
• It offers an analytical framework and management basis for the sustainable development of oases in arid regions worldwide.

Funding

• The research was funded by projects, programs, and reference codes from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Citation

@article{Guo2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Guo, Xinran and Hao, Xingming and Kulaixi, Zulipiya and Ci, Mengtao and Liang, Qixiang and Sun, Fan and Fan, Xue and Xiong, Haibin and Xu, Jinfan},
  title = {Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of water resource, socioeconomic, and ecosystem coupling in Xinjiang's oases},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110809},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110809}
}