Umer et al. (2026) Modeling long-term and interannual crop area changes: Integrating socioeconomic and hydrometeorological factors in the Indus Basin

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-04
• Authors: Muhammad Rizwan Umer, Naota Hanasaki, Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan, Taikan Oki
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110824

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo (UTokyo)
• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
• International Center, Tokyo Metropolitan University

Short Summary

This study investigates the factors influencing interannual and long-term changes in crop area (CA) in the Indus River Basin (IRB), with a focus on Punjab, Pakistan. The analysis reveals that CA changes are strongly influenced by lagged relationships with crop price, yield, and river water availability.

Objective

• Investigate the primary factors influencing interannual and long-term changes in CA in the IRB.
• Develop a quantitative framework to model CA dynamics through the incorporation of dynamic farmer responses.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on Punjab, Pakistan, within the Indus River Basin (IRB).
• Temporal Scale: The analysis covers the period 1950–2020 and future projections up to 2060.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
  • System Dynamics (SD)
• Data sources:
  • Observational socio-economic and hydro-meteorological data for 1950–2020
  • Future projection simulations using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) framework

Main Results

• The SD model effectively captures historical CA changes (R2=0.95, NRMSE=9.8%) and significantly outperforms other models in capturing both long-term trends and interannual variability.
• Future projections indicate a 35–50% increase in CA and a 45–60% rise in groundwater withdrawals by 2060.

Contributions

• This study provides a quantitative framework to model CA dynamics through the incorporation of dynamic farmer responses, addressing the limitations of previous studies that relied on simplified assumptions for CA changes.
• The framework offers transferable insights for agricultural water management and groundwater sustainability in irrigation-dominated basins.

Funding

• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
• Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan
• Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)

Citation

@article{Umer2026Modeling,
  author = {Umer, Muhammad Rizwan and Hanasaki, Naota and Gopalan, Saritha Padiyedath and Oki, Taikan},
  title = {Modeling long-term and interannual crop area changes: Integrating socioeconomic and hydrometeorological factors in the Indus Basin},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110824},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110824}
}