Kemarau et al. (2026) Global monsoon variability in a 1.5 °C warming climate: Observational changes and end-century projections

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-09
• Authors: Ricky Anak Kemarau, Zulfaqar Sa'adi, Najeebullah Khan, Mohammed Hashim, Leonardo Goliatt, Sajjad Firas Abdulameer
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765

Research Groups

• Earth Observation Centre, Institute of Climate Change, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
• Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), Research Institute for Sustainable Environment (RISE), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
• Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya (UM)
• Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Lasbela University of Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences (LUAWMS)
• Scientific Research Commission, Baghdad, Iraq
• Department of Computational and Applied Mechanics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora
• College of Engineering, Al-Ayen University
• Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala
• Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
• Regional Climate Change Center, National Center for Meteorology

Short Summary

This review synthesizes observational changes and end-century projections of global monsoon variability in a 1.5 °C warming climate, revealing significant shifts in monsoon onset, duration, and extreme rainfall, particularly in Asian monsoon regions, driven by natural variability and anthropogenic factors.

Objective

• To determine if monsoon onset, duration, and extreme rainfall are already shifting in detectable, regionally differentiated ways as global temperatures have surpassed +1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global monsoon systems, with specific focus on South Asia, East Asia, Western North Pacific, Southeast Asia, West Africa, North America, and Australia.
• Temporal Scale: Observational period from 1981 to 2024; end-century projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP5/CMIP6 (for attribution of observed changes).
• Data sources:
  • Systematic review and meta-analysis of 72 high-quality peer-reviewed studies (2000–2024) using the PRISMA 2020 framework.
  • Global diagnostic using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS; 1981–2024).
  • Reanalysis and satellite precipitation products for attribution: ERA5, TRMM, GPM, and IMERG.

Main Results

• Observed monsoon onset shifts of up to ±15 days.
• Rainfall intensity increases ranging from +10% to +60%.
• Monsoon duration changes of up to ±15 days.
• Strongest signals of change are observed in South Asia, East Asia, the Western North Pacific, and Southeast Asia.
• Dominant drivers of these changes include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea-surface temperature anomalies, and greenhouse-gas (GHG)–aerosol interactions.
• While seasonal rainfall totals often show modest changes, there is an increased clustering of extreme events and lengthening dry spells, significantly elevating compound flood–drought risk.

Contributions

• Establishes the first harmonized global baseline of observed monsoon changes in a 1.5 °C warming climate.
• Highlights critical needs for convection-permitting regional models, improved subseasonal prediction, expanded observational networks, and increased representation of African and South American monsoon systems in research.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Kemarau2026Global,
  author = {Kemarau, Ricky Anak and Sa'adi, Zulfaqar and Khan, Najeebullah and Hashim, Mohammed and Goliatt, Leonardo and Abdulameer, Sajjad Firas and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher and Shahid, Shamsuddin},
  title = {Global monsoon variability in a 1.5 °C warming climate: Observational changes and end-century projections},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765}
}