Xu et al. (2026) Drought as a risk amplifier: The intensifying regime of compound dry-hot events in China

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-06
• Authors: Pengcheng Xu, Dong Hwan Wang, Yuankun Wang, Vijay P. Singh, Jianchun Qiu, Xiaolei Fu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108825

Research Groups

• College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, PR China
• Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing, PR China
• School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, PR China
• Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station TX77843, USA
• National Water and Energy Center, UAE University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and risk amplification of compound dry-hot (CDH) events in China from 1962 to 2022, revealing a significant increase in their frequency, duration, and severity, with drought amplifying concurrent heatwave risks by 3-7 times.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal changes in the frequency, duration, dryness severity, and extreme heat characteristics of compound dry-hot (CDH) events in China.
• To quantify the risk amplification ratio of concurrent heatwaves due to drought conditions across China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China (nationwide)
• Temporal Scale: 1962 to 2022 (61 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Conditional Copula-based framework to calculate a risk amplification ratio (RAR).
• Data sources: High-resolution daily data, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperatures. Analysis validated by employing two distinct data products.

Main Results

• A significant increase in the frequency and spatial extent of drought-related heatwaves was observed, particularly in recent decades.
• CDH events are intensifying, with annual durations extending by 1.8 to 3.6 days and severity rising by 2 to 9 units per event.
• Drought amplifies concurrent heatwave risks by 3 to 7 times across most regions of China, with particularly amplified impacts in arid regions.
• Background aridity critically modulates both CDH spatiotemporal characteristics and the magnitude of drought-induced heatwave risk amplification.

Contributions

• Enhances the mechanistic understanding of compound event dynamics.
• Underscores the necessity of accounting for drought as a key triggering factor in climate risk assessments.
• Leverages daily-scale data and a novel probabilistic framework for analysis.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Xu2026Drought,
  author = {Xu, Pengcheng and Wang, Dong Hwan and Wang, Yuankun and Singh, Vijay P. and Qiu, Jianchun and Fu, Xiaolei},
  title = {Drought as a risk amplifier: The intensifying regime of compound dry-hot events in China},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108825},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108825}
}