Yıldırım et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal assessment of aridification in Europe (1950–2024) using bias-corrected high-resolution reanalysis dataset

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-19
• Authors: H.H. Yıldırım, K. Ishida, A. Ercan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108874

Research Groups

• Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye
• Center for Water Cycle, Marine Environment, and Disaster Management, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan

Short Summary

This study comprehensively assesses spatiotemporal aridification in Europe from 1950 to 2024 using bias-corrected high-resolution ERA5-Land data, revealing an accelerated, evapotranspiration-driven shift towards increased aridity across large parts of the continent in the 21st century.

Objective

• To comprehensively assess spatiotemporal aridification in Europe during the 1950–2024 period, evaluating temporal shifts in aridity, the quantitative contributions of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, and the evolution of land classifications based on Aridity Index thresholds.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe (continent-wide, national scale, distinct elevation bands).
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2024, analyzed in three consecutive 25-year intervals.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Penman-Monteith (for Reference Evapotranspiration, ET0, calculation).
• Data sources: ERA5-Land high-resolution climate reanalysis dataset, ground observations (for bias correction).

Main Results

• A clear acceleration and a fundamental shift toward evapotranspiration-driven aridification have occurred in the twenty-first century across large parts of Europe.
• Land classifications based on Aridity Index thresholds (humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid zones) show significant temporal evolution and spatial redistribution following UNEP criteria.
• The analysis disaggregated findings at the national scale and investigated trends across distinct elevation bands, providing detailed insights into regional aridification patterns.

Contributions

• Provides one of the most comprehensive spatiotemporal assessments of recent European aridification using a high-resolution, bias-corrected reanalysis dataset.
• Demonstrates a critical shift towards evapotranspiration-driven aridification in the 21st century, highlighting the changing dynamics of water balance.
• Offers a fine-resolution scientific basis for identifying vulnerable regions and developing targeted adaptation strategies against future aridification.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yıldırım2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Yıldırım, H.H. and Ishida, K. and Ercan, A.},
  title = {Spatiotemporal assessment of aridification in Europe (1950–2024) using bias-corrected high-resolution reanalysis dataset},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108874},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108874}
}