Chen et al. (2026) Comparative analysis of high-resolution GCMs and RCMs ensembles in simulating and projecting compound extreme events in China

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-09
• Authors: Qixuan Chen, Liren Wang, Jinxin Zhu, Dagang Wang, Yiwen Mei
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917

Research Groups

Carbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China

Short Summary

This study compares high-resolution CMIP6 Global Climate Model (GCM) and CMIP5 Regional Climate Model (RCM) multi-model ensembles for simulating and projecting Compound Extreme Heat-Precipitation Events (CHPEs) over China, finding that GCM ensembles generally demonstrate better capability in reproducing these events.

Objective

• To compare the capability of high-resolution CMIP6 Global Climate Model (GCM) multi-model ensembles (GCMbma) and CMIP5 Regional Climate Model (RCM) multi-model ensembles (RCMbma) in simulating and projecting Compound Extreme Heat-Precipitation Events (CHPEs) over China at similar resolutions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China, with model resolutions of 0.5 degrees and 0.25 degrees.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1985–2004) and future projection period (2031–2050) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-model ensembles constructed from five high-resolution CMIP5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs). The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) algorithm was used to create the ensembles (GCMbma and RCMbma).
• Data sources: Outputs from CMIP5 RCMs and CMIP6 GCMs.

Main Results

• The GCM multi-model ensemble (GCMbma) demonstrates superior capability in reproducing historical extreme heat, precipitation, and their compound events over China compared to the RCM multi-model ensemble (RCMbma).
• The RCM multi-model ensemble (RCMbma) generally underestimates the frequencies of Compound Extreme Heat-Precipitation Events (CHPEs), particularly in southern China.
• The improved performance of high-resolution GCMs is attributed to their ability to simultaneously resolve large-scale atmospheric circulation and local processes.
• Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, GCMbma projects an increase and intensification of extreme heat events followed by extreme precipitation (TP events), especially in southern China.
• Extreme precipitation events followed by extreme heat (PT events) are projected to shift from northern to southern China, particularly in mountainous regions.

Contributions

• This study provides the first thorough investigation comparing high-resolution CMIP6 GCMs and CMIP5 RCMs at similar resolutions for simulating and projecting Compound Extreme Heat-Precipitation Events (CHPEs).
• It reveals the advantages of high-resolution CMIP6 GCM multi-model ensembles in simulating and projecting CHPEs over China.
• The findings offer crucial scientific evidence to inform the development of regional climate adaptation strategies for China.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Chen2026Comparative,
  author = {Chen, Qixuan and Wang, Liren and Zhu, Jinxin and Wang, Dagang and Mei, Yiwen},
  title = {Comparative analysis of high-resolution GCMs and RCMs ensembles in simulating and projecting compound extreme events in China},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917}
}