Qiu et al. (2026) Attribution of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau, China: Roles of internal variability and external forcing

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-27
• Authors: Linjing Qiu, K. C. T. Yang, Yiping Wu, Yibo Ma, Mengyao Cai, Yunqiang Wang, Huiting Yan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108966

Research Groups

• Department of Earth and Environmental Science, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710049, China
• State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China
• Institute of Land Comprehensive Science, Northwest Research Institute of Engineering Investigations and Design, Xi'an 710003, China

Short Summary

This study investigated precipitation and extreme precipitation trends on the Loess Plateau (1980-2018), attributing changes to internal climate variability and external forcings. It found an overall increase in precipitation, particularly after 2000, influenced positively by natural forcing and greenhouse gases, with aerosols having a negative effect.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation and extreme precipitation across the Loess Plateau, explore their links to internal climate variability, and quantify the effects of external forcings (natural and anthropogenic).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Loess Plateau (LP), China, covering approximately 640,000 square kilometers.
• Temporal Scale: 1980 to 2018.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project experiments, optimal fingerprinting method.
• Data sources: Observational precipitation data, CMIP6 model outputs.

Main Results

• Annual mean precipitation showed a slight upward trend, with a more pronounced increase after 2000 (3.9 mm per year), particularly in the northern Loess Plateau.
• Four of six extreme precipitation indices (R95p, R99p, R10, R20) also exhibited increasing trends.
• Wavelet coherence analysis revealed strong associations between precipitation changes and internal climate variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) influenced extreme precipitation during specific periods.
• Attribution analysis indicated that natural forcing played a positive role in the observed increase in precipitation.
• Among anthropogenic forcings, greenhouse gas emissions were associated with a positive contribution to precipitation.
• Aerosols exerted predominantly negative influences on precipitation across most regions.
• The overall anthropogenic signal was not clearly detected, likely due to offsetting effects of different drivers and the masking influence of strong internal climate variability.

Contributions

• Enhanced the understanding of precipitation dynamics over the Loess Plateau.
• Provided a methodological framework for regional-scale attribution analysis.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Qiu2026Attribution,
  author = {Qiu, Linjing and Yang, K. C. T. and Wu, Yiping and Ma, Yibo and Cai, Mengyao and Wang, Yunqiang and Yan, Huiting},
  title = {Attribution of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau, China: Roles of internal variability and external forcing},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108966},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108966}
}