Vologjanin et al. (2026) Linking intra-annual density fluctuations to early-warning indicators of drought-driven tree mortality in the NE Iberian Peninsula

Identification

• Journal: Dendrochronologia
• Year: 2026
• Authors: Ivan Marbà Vologjanin, Irena Sochová, Paula Cara-Abad, Elisabet Martínez-Sancho
• DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126471

Research Groups

• Department of Biological Evolution, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.
• Department of Wood Science and Technology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic.
• Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic.

Short Summary

The study identifies Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) as a superior early-warning signal for drought-driven mortality in Pinus halepensis compared to traditional growth metrics. Findings reveal that surviving trees exhibit higher IADF frequency and greater climatic plasticity, allowing them to better adjust to Mediterranean environmental fluctuations.

Objective

• To evaluate the effectiveness of traditional growth-related parameters versus intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) as early-warning indicators for drought-induced mortality in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Garraf Massif, North-East Iberian Peninsula, Spain (Mediterranean forest–shrubland ecotone).
• Temporal Scale: Long-term dendrochronological analysis focused on a massive mortality event occurring in 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Dendroecological comparative analysis between living and dead trees; assessment of Basal Area Increments (BAI), growth series autocorrelation, and climatic growth sensitivity.
• Data sources: Tree-ring width measurements, wood anatomical observations for IADF identification, and regional climatic data (precipitation and vapor pressure deficit).

Main Results

• Traditional early-warning signals, including long-term growth trends, autocorrelation, and growth variability, failed to show significant differences between trees that died and those that survived.
• Living trees exhibited a significantly higher frequency of IADFs compared to dead individuals.
• Living trees demonstrated higher climatic sensitivity regarding IADF formation, indicating a superior capacity for plastic adjustment and a bimodal growth pattern in response to environmental shifts.
• Precipitation was confirmed as the primary climatic driver for growth in both living and dead tree cohorts.

Contributions

• The research introduces IADFs as a novel and mechanistically-linked early-warning indicator for tree mortality, surpassing the predictive power of standard radial growth metrics.
• It provides evidence that individual plastic capacity, reflected in wood anatomical features, is a critical determinant of tree survival in the face of extreme drought events in the Mediterranean Basin.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Vologjanin2026Linking,
  author = {Vologjanin, Ivan Marbà and Sochová, Irena and Cara-Abad, Paula and Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet},
  title = {Linking intra-annual density fluctuations to early-warning indicators of drought-driven tree mortality in the NE Iberian Peninsula},
  journal = {Dendrochronologia},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126471},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126471}
}

Generated by BiblioAssistant using gemini-3-flash-preview (Google API)