Li et al. (2026) A multi-Hazard risk assessment model for drought and flood: An example from Kashgar Region, Xinjiang

Identification

• Journal: Ecological Frontiers
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Qilong Li, Lin Fu, Chongchong Ye, Junnan Xiong, Jun Liu, Leipeng Wang, Gaoyun Shen, Zhiwei Yong, Quankun Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecofro.2026.01.002

Research Groups

• School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
• Xizang Autonomous Region Key Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Xizang Autonomous Region, China
• School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
• Sichuan Zhongwei Surveying and Mapping Co., Ltd, China
• School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China

Short Summary

This study proposes a coupled multi-hazard risk assessment model for drought and flood, applying it to the Kashgar region, China, to bridge the gap in unified risk evaluation. The findings reveal a distinct spatial complementarity between drought and flood risks across the region, providing data-driven insights for disaster management.

Objective

• To develop and apply a unified multi-hazard risk assessment model for drought and flood to bridge the methodological gap between individual hazard evaluations and advance holistic disaster risk reduction efforts.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Kashgar Region, northwestern China) at grid-scale.
• Temporal Scale: Not explicitly defined for data used, but focuses on current/recent risk assessment of hydroclimatic extremes.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Lightweight Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) for flood hazard quantification.
  • Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) for drought hazard quantification.
  • Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) for screening vulnerability and exposure indicators.
  • CRITIC–independent weighting (IW) method for assigning objective weights.
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in the provided text.

Main Results

• The study identified a spatial complementarity between drought and flood hazards in the Kashgar region.
• Central-western counties (Shufu, Shache, and Yingjisha) account for 17.20 %, 20.37 %, and 14.66 % of areas at very high flood risk, respectively, but are located within very low drought risk zones.
• Conversely, Tashkurgan Tajik Autonomous County (south) and Kashgar City (north) contain 24.39 % and 9.76 % of areas at very high drought risk, respectively, but are situated in very low flood risk zones.
• The multi-hazard assessment clarifies the spatial differentiation of compound drought–flood risk in Kashgar.

Contributions

• Proposes a novel coupled multi-hazard risk assessment approach for drought and flood, bridging a significant methodological gap in integrated disaster risk evaluation.
• Advances towards a unified assessment framework for compound hydroclimatic risks, moving beyond traditional single-hazard analyses.
• Provides grid-scale quantification of integrated drought–flood risk, offering a more granular understanding of risk distribution.
• Offers data-driven insights crucial for enhancing early-warning systems and optimizing resource allocation under composite hazard scenarios.

Funding

• Not explicitly detailed in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2026multiHazard,
  author = {Li, Qilong and Fu, Lin and Ye, Chongchong and Xiong, Junnan and Liu, Jun and Wang, Leipeng and Shen, Gaoyun and Yong, Zhiwei and Liu, Quankun},
  title = {A multi-Hazard risk assessment model for drought and flood: An example from Kashgar Region, Xinjiang},
  journal = {Ecological Frontiers},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecofro.2026.01.002},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecofro.2026.01.002}
}