Li et al. (2026) Greening of the Taklamakan Desert: Effects of climate change and ecological water conveyance

Identification

• Journal: Ecological Indicators
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-14
• Authors: Dinghao Li, Yasenjiang Kahaer, Zhentao Dong, Ruijia Liu, Anwar Abdureyim, Yulong Liu, Yanbo Wan, Qingdong Shi
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115510

Research Groups

• College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
• Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
• College of Water Hydraulic and Architectural Engineering, Tarim University, Alar 843300, Xinjiang, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the "greening" phenomenon in arid environments by examining the Taklamakan Desert and its surrounding oasis systems. The research integrates multi-source remote-sensing data, field observations, random forest models, and Geographical Detector analysis to quantify vegetation changes and disentangle the effects of climate change, ecological water conveyance, groundwater dynamics, and land-use change.

Objective

• Quantify long-term changes in oasis vegetation, cropland expansion, surface-water dynamics, and groundwater conditions since 2000.
• Identify dominant climatic and hydrological drivers of crop­land and natural vegetation greening.
• Evaluate whether oasis greening is accompanied by potential ecological risks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering the Taklamakan Desert and surrounding oasis systems in northwestern China.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term study from 2000 to 2024, with a focus on changes over the past two decades.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Random forest (RF) algorithm for land-cover classification and groundwater-depth inversion.
  • Geographical Detector (GeoDetector) for identifying driving factors and their interaction effects.
• Data sources:
  • Multi-source remote-sensing data, including Landsat imagery and MODIS data.
  • Field observations of groundwater levels and vegetation conditions.
  • Climate and precipitation datasets from ERA5-Land, TerraClimate, and CHIRPS.

Main Results

• Cropland expanded at a rate of 678.07 km2⋅yr−1 across the study area, but this rate began to decrease near 2015.
• Natural vegetation within the study area primarily consisted of foundational species, with tree communities represented by Populus euphratica and shrub communities dominated by Tamarix chinensis.
• Woodland area expanded at a rate of 389.04 km2⋅yr−1, whereas shrubland increased by 1578.94 km2 annually.
• The surface-water catchment (inundated) area in the study region increased at a rate of 68.3826 km2⋅yr−1.
• Groundwater levels rose by approximately 0.07 m per year, with an overall increasing trend in the study area.
• The number of flash droughts exhibited a decreasing trend across the Taklamakan Desert.
• Air temperature increased at a rate of 0.0289 ◦C⋅yr−1, primarily driven by winter temperatures.
• Mean annual precipitation increased by 0.02 mm⋅yr−1, with summer precipitation increasing by 0.065 mm⋅yr−1 and winter precipitation decreasing by 0.0012 mm⋅yr−1.
• Compound drought generally intensified across the Taklamakan Desert.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into how arid ecosystems respond to coupled climatic and anthropogenic drivers, offering scientific support for ecological water-delivery regulation, agricultural water-use optimization, and riparian habitat conservation. The research highlights the importance of considering multiple factors, including climate change, ecological water conveyance, groundwater dynamics, and land-use change, in understanding oasis succession and its underlying mechanisms.

Funding

• This study was funded by projects and programs from various institutions, including:
  • [Project name]: [Reference code]
  • [Program name]: [Reference code]

Citation

@article{Li2026Greening,
  author = {Li, Dinghao and Kahaer, Yasenjiang and Dong, Zhentao and Liu, Ruijia and Abdureyim, Anwar and Liu, Yulong and Wan, Yanbo and Shi, Qingdong},
  title = {Greening of the Taklamakan Desert: Effects of climate change and ecological water conveyance},
  journal = {Ecological Indicators},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115510},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115510}
}