Jin et al. (2026) Dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the three-river headwaters region: Trajectory differentiation and causal mechanisms

Identification

• Journal: Ecological Indicators
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-20
• Authors: Ruhan Jin, Shuangyun Peng, Xue Ding, Zhiqiang Lin, Erlin Jin, 京瑞 单, Fapeng Cai, WeiHang Wang, Xianchun Pan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511

Research Groups

• Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China
• Personnel Department, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China
• School of Geography and Tourism, Huizhou University, Huizhou, China
• Yunnan Provincial International Joint Laboratory for Resources and Security around the Indian Ocean, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China
• Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Resource and Security in the Indian Ocean Region, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated framework to analyze the dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) from 1990 to 2020. It found that water conservation is generally stable with multi-scale fluctuations, but local areas exhibit differentiated trajectories and resilience, facing potential degradation risks.

Objective

• To systematically explore the multi-scale evolutionary characteristics, dynamic trajectory classification, and differential mechanisms of ecological resilience of water conservation in the Three-River Headwaters Region under dry-wet disturbances, addressing gaps in traditional static and homogeneous research.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), approximately 3.748 x 10^5 square kilometers, with data resampled to 1 square kilometer resolution.
• Temporal Scale: 31 years, from 1990 to 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • InVEST model (for water conservation quantification)
  • Wavelet periodic analysis (for multi-scale fluctuation characteristics)
  • Trajectory diagnosis framework (linear, quadratic, step models, AIC optimization, bootstrap resampling)
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (for identifying dry/wet anomalies)
  • Multi-dimensional resilience evaluation system (Resistance Stability (Rs), Recovery Time (Tr), Recovery Degree (Dr), Asymmetry Index (AI))
  • Optimized Geographical Potential Causality (GPC) model (for causal identification)
  • Local Moran's Index (LISA) (for spatial agglomeration analysis)
  • Kruskal–Wallis test (for resilience indicator differences)
  • Pearson correlation analysis (for cross-validation)
• Data sources: Multi-source geospatial big data including climate (precipitation, temperature, potential/actual evapotranspiration, SPEI, land surface temperature), vegetation (LAI), soil (soil organic matter, depth-to-bedrock), topography (slope, aspect), water body (Global Lakes and Wetlands Database), and socio-economy (Normalized Difference Built-up Index, Normalized Urban Population Density, Long-term High-resolution Grazing Intensity). Data platforms include National Tibetan Plateau / Third Pole Environment Data Center, National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Zenodo, Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, Resources and Environmental Science Data Center, Nature, Google Earth Engine, and Figshare.

Main Results

• Water conservation in the TRHR exhibits multi-scale fluctuation characteristics, with a dominant 22-year low-frequency oscillation and a secondary 5-year periodic variation.
• A long-term spatial agglomeration pattern of "high in the south and low in the north" was observed, with Global Moran's I consistently above 0.87 (p < 0.01).
• Trajectory analysis revealed that neutral trajectories account for the largest proportion (60.0%), followed by positive trajectories (29.8%) and negative trajectories (10.2%).
• The positive linear trajectory showed the highest comprehensive resilience, while positive and negative step trajectories exhibited the weakest resilience, indicating that gradual improvement enhances resilience, whereas abrupt changes trigger vulnerability.
• Significant trajectory differentiation exists in driving mechanisms:
  • Stable areas are constrained by the coupled effects of topography, soil, and climatic natural background factors.
  • Improved areas are synergistically driven by climatic humidification and underlying surface regulation.
  • Degraded and mutated areas are mainly characterized by eco-hydrological decoupling, combined with local human disturbances.
• The water conservation capacity of the TRHR is generally stable, but local areas face potential threshold degradation risks.

Contributions

• Developed an innovative coupled integrated framework ("spatiotemporal quantification–trajectory diagnosis–resilience assessment–typed causal identification") to overcome limitations of traditional static, linear, and correlation-based research on water conservation.
• Systematically revealed the dynamic evolution, resilience differentiation, and differentiated driving mechanisms of water conservation in alpine regions.
• Provided a novel understanding of ecosystem stability, demonstrating that the resilience of hydrological regulation services is dynamic and highly dependent on its historical evolutionary path.
• Offered a scientific blueprint for refined spatial management, ecological conservation, and risk prevention in the Three-River Headwaters National Park, guiding targeted policy formulation.

Funding

• The National Natural Science Foundation of China (42261073, 42561055, 42471131, 42261037)
• Yunnan Province Reserve Talent Program for Young and Middle-aged Academic and Technical Leaders (202305AC160083, 202205AC160014)
• Yunnan Provincial Basic Research Project (202501AS070111, 202401AS070037, 202401AT070103)
• Special Project for the Construction of International Joint Laboratory for Resources and Security around the Indian Ocean in Yunnan Province (202303AP140002)

Citation

@article{Jin2026Dynamic,
  author = {Jin, Ruhan and Peng, Shuangyun and Ding, Xue and Lin, Zhiqiang and Jin, Erlin and 单, 京瑞 and Cai, Fapeng and Wang, WeiHang and Pan, Xianchun},
  title = {Dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the three-river headwaters region: Trajectory differentiation and causal mechanisms},
  journal = {Ecological Indicators},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511}
}