Wang et al. (2026) Integrated analysis of groundwater storage dynamics and drought migration in the Tarim River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-07
• Authors: Jing Wang, Guotao Dong, Hongbo Ling, Na Tang, Zhe Gao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103099

Research Groups

• Heihe Water Resources and Ecological Protection Research Center, Lanzhou, China.
• Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, China.

Short Summary

This study quantifies a significant long-term groundwater depletion rate of −8.6 mm/year in the Tarim River Basin from 2002 to 2024. It reveals a 250 km southeastward migration of groundwater drought centers driven by the combined pressures of glacier retreat and intensive agricultural irrigation.

Objective

• To quantify spatiotemporal groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) and develop a standardized Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI) to track the evolution and spatial migration of subsurface drought in a hyper-arid inland river basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Tarim River Basin, China; approximately 1,000,000 km²).
• Temporal Scale: 2002–2024 (Monthly and seasonal resolutions).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for soil moisture (0–200 cm) and snow water equivalent; Sen’s slope and Mann–Kendall tests for trend analysis.
• Data sources: GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite missions (Total Water Storage Anomalies), JRC (Joint Research Centre) Global Surface Water dataset, and in-situ groundwater level observations for validation (R² = 0.67).
• Key Equation: GWSA = TWSA − (SMA + SWEA + SWSA), where SMA is soil moisture, SWEA is snow water, and SWSA is surface water storage anomalies.

Main Results

• Quantitative Depletion: Detected a significant groundwater decline of −8.6 mm/year (p < 0.01), resulting in a cumulative loss of 198 mm or approximately 23.4 billion m³ over 22 years.
• Drought Prevalence: More than 65% of the basin experienced moderate to extreme groundwater drought for at least 10 years of the study period.
• Spatial Migration: The drought centroid shifted approximately 250 km southeastward, moving from midstream recharge areas toward downstream terminal regions like Taitema Lake.
• Seasonal Vulnerability: Winter and spring were identified as the most vulnerable periods due to the temporal mismatch between early irrigation withdrawals and delayed snowmelt/glacier recharge.
• Regional Hotspots: The most severe depletion is concentrated in the Aksu, Kashi, and Korla sub-regions, which are centers of intensive cotton cultivation.

Contributions

• Methodological Framework: Establishes an integrated remote-sensing approach for monitoring groundwater in data-scarce, hyper-arid regions where in-situ networks are insufficient.
• Diagnostic Tool: Introduces the Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI) as a physically meaningful metric that captures the "long-memory" nature of subsurface storage compared to traditional meteorological indices.
• Migration Insights: Provides the first detailed analysis of drought center migration in the Tarim River Basin, illustrating how anthropogenic extraction and climate-driven glacier retreat reorganize basin-wide hydrological equilibrium.

Funding

• Central Guidance Fund for Local Scientific and Technological Development of Xinjiang (ZYYD2025ZY22).
• Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2023D01D18).
• Basic and Cross-Cutting Frontier Scientific Research Pilot Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB0720102).
• Gansu Province Longyuan Young Talents Program (YJZX-2025-01-01).

Citation

@article{Wang2026Integrated,
  author = {Wang, Jing and Dong, Guotao and Ling, Hongbo and Tang, Na and Gao, Zhe},
  title = {Integrated analysis of groundwater storage dynamics and drought migration in the Tarim River Basin},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103099},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103099}
}

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