Tu et al. (2026) Advancing river management under dam regulation: Insights from the Yellow River

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-15
• Authors: Deyao Tu, Houjie Wang, Naishuang Bi, Xiao Wu, Aimei Wang, Fukang Qi, Yanguang Dou, Yupeng Ren
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103134

Research Groups

• Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology, China Geological Survey
• College of Marine Geosciences, Key Laboratory of Submarine Geosciences and Prospecting Techniques, Ocean University of China
• Laboratory of Marine Geology, Qingdao National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology
• Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center

Short Summary

This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of the Yellow River's Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) over two decades, identifying a shift from a high-efficiency phase (before 2014) to a constrained phase (after 2018), and proposes optimized regulation strategies using a 3D numerical model to enhance delta sustainability.

Objective

• To systematically evaluate the WSRS effectiveness since its implementation, focusing on performance differences before 2014 and after 2018, and analyzing the underlying mechanisms.
• To propose a delta-sustaining WSRS optimization strategy using an idealized 3D numerical model, with emphasis on water-sediment regulation processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River, Yellow River Delta (YRD), lower reaches of the Yellow River, Bohai Sea. The numerical model used a simplified idealized estuary model with a horizontal grid of 202 × 62 cells and a resolution of 200 × 30 meters.
• Temporal Scale: Evaluation covers two decades (since 2002), specifically comparing periods before 2014, 2015-2017, and after 2018. Data utilized spans from 1990 to 2023. Numerical model simulations spanned 20 days.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST)
  • Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)
  • Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS)
• Data sources:
  • Yellow River Conservancy Commission (water discharge, sediment load, suspended sediment concentration, median grain size, reservoir sediment retention volume, channel siltation/erosion volume, river channel elevations, bed material median grain size)
  • National Earth System Science Data Center
  • Yellow River Sediment Bulletin
  • Yellow River Hydrological Annuals
  • Landsat satellite imagery (subaerial delta area) from Geospatial Data Cloud
  • Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (typhoon frequency)

Main Results

• The WSRS transformed the Yellow River's hydrological and sediment dynamics from a natural to an anthropogenically controlled state.
• Before 2014 (high-efficiency phase): The WSRS effectively scoured the lower river channel at an average rate of 1.02 × 10^8 cubic meters per year (m^3/a) and significantly increased the delivery of coarse-grained sediment (up to 26% sand load) to the sea, leading to rapid delta progradation at 6.89 square kilometers per year (km^2/a).
• 2015-2017 (interruption): Sediment deficits resulted in deltaic erosion at a rate of 0.14 km^2/a.
• After 2018 (constrained phase): WSRS efficacy declined, with delta accretion slowing to 1.16 km^2/a. This reduced progradation rate was controlled by:
  • Severe reservoir siltation (Xiaolangdi Reservoir accumulated 3.5 × 10^9 m^3 by 2023).
  • Downstream channel armoring (median grain size of bed material approximately doubled), reducing scouring efficiency.
  • Diminished supply of coarse sediment from the lower channel.
  • Intensified tidal currents due to the continuously protruding shoreline.
  • An increased sediment coefficient promoting offshore dispersal.
  • More frequent typhoon events enhancing sediment redistribution.
• Optimized WSRS strategies (numerical model results):
  • Reducing discharge during the Water Regulation Period (WRP) while increasing it during the Sediment Regulation Period (SRP) (sediment-assisted scouring) can enhance deltaic sediment trapping efficiency.
  • Implementing an additional clear-water release during the non-flood season following the WSRS can further boost sediment retention within the delta (e.g., a scenario with 3000 m^3/s for 10 days followed by 2000 m^3/s for 10 days resulted in a 55.4% increase in delta deposition compared to the control).
  • Higher discharge magnitudes may reduce deltaic sediment trapping efficiency by exporting more sediment offshore.

Contributions

• Provided a comprehensive, two-decade evaluation of the WSRS, revealing a critical mechanistic shift from high efficiency to a constrained phase.
• Identified and analyzed multiple interacting factors (reservoir siltation, channel armoring, tidal currents, sediment characteristics, typhoon frequency) contributing to the declining delta progradation rate after 2018.
• Proposed and numerically tested an optimized WSRS strategy, including "sediment-assisted channel scouring" and non-flood season clear-water releases, offering concrete operational insights for sustainable delta management.
• Established a scientific basis for Yellow River basin management and provided valuable reference for other large sediment-laden river systems globally facing similar challenges.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number: 42576060)

Citation

@article{Tu2026Advancing,
  author = {Tu, Deyao and Wang, Houjie and Bi, Naishuang and Wu, Xiao and Wang, Aimei and Qi, Fukang and Dou, Yanguang and Ren, Yupeng},
  title = {Advancing river management under dam regulation: Insights from the Yellow River},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103134},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103134}
}