Tian et al. (2026) Characteristics of drought evolution and response relationships on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-09
• Authors: Hao Tian, Yier Dan, M. A. Farid, H Li, Xiaodong Li, Pengfei Li, Bing Liu, Xinlin He, Yongli Gao, Fadong Li, Yong Li, Lianqing Xue, Guang Yang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103216

Research Groups

• College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, China
• Key Laboratory of Cold and Arid Regions Eco-Hydraulic Engineering of Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps, China
• Key Laboratory of Modern Water-saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps, China
• Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Texas at San Antonio, United States
• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, China
• College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, China

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and response relationships of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains from 1980 to 2019, revealing an overall alleviation of drought conditions but complex propagation mechanisms influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts in the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) region over the last four decades.
• To analyze the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts through run theory and event matching.
• To assess the influence of meteorological factors on agricultural droughts via correlation analysis.
• To explore the spatial correlations and distribution patterns of meteorological and agricultural droughts across different timescales.
• To quantify the specific response mechanisms, propagation pathways, and lag characteristics involved in the transmission of meteorological droughts to hydrological and agricultural droughts.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), Northwest China (79.33ºE–96.51ºE, 42.06ºN–47.63ºN), encompassing 32 meteorological stations and 9 hydrological monitoring stations. Elevation ranges from 154 meters to 5433 meters.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Meteorological data: January 1980 to December 2019 (40 years).
  • Hydrological data: January 1980 to December 2012 (33 years).
  • Vegetation data (VCI): 1982–2019 (38 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1, 3, 6, and 12-month scales.
  • Penman–Monteith equation (for potential evapotranspiration, ET0, using ET0 Calculator software).
  • Standardized Runoff Index (SRI).
  • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI).
  • Run Theory (for identifying and characterizing drought events).
  • Mann–Kendall (MK) test (for trend and abrupt change analysis).
  • Pearson correlation coefficient (for analyzing relationships between variables).
  • Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation (for spatial data analysis).
  • Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) (for time-frequency domain correlation between sequences).
• Data sources:
  • Meteorological data: Daily precipitation, mean/maximum/minimum temperature, 2-meter wind speed, sunshine hours, and relative humidity from 32 ground observation stations, obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network.
  • Hydrological data: Monthly runoff records from the Ebinur Lake Basin and nine hydrological monitoring stations, sourced from hydrological yearbooks published by the Hydrology Bureau of the Ministry of Water Resources.
  • Vegetation data: NOAA's Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Climate Data Record (1982–1999, 5-kilometer resolution) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS13A3 (2000–2019, 1-kilometer resolution).

Main Results

• Meteorological Drought: From 1980 to 2019, SPEI at annual and seasonal scales showed a significant upward trend (P < 0.05), indicating substantial alleviation of meteorological droughts. The annual SPEI increased at 22 of 32 stations. Average drought duration decreased from 22.96 months (1980–1989) to 10.89 months (2010–2019), and average drought intensity decreased from 26.79 to 12.41.
• Hydrological Drought: Annual average runoff at hydrological control stations showed a significant upward trend (Z = 2.34, P < 0.01). The SRI notably shifted from drought to wet conditions between 1996 and 2003. The mean duration and intensity of hydrological droughts over the study period were 15.72 months and 16.94, respectively. Rivers in the southern part of the Western NSTM showed lower susceptibility to meteorological droughts, while those in the central region were more vulnerable.
• Agricultural Drought: The annual average VCI ranged from 40 to 60, with a mean of 51.54, indicating generally mild agricultural drought conditions. The VCI time series showed a significant upward trend (Z = 2.46, P < 0.05) from 1982 to 2019, signifying alleviation of agricultural drought.
• Drought Propagation and Relationships:
  • The correlation between SPEI6 and VCI was notably strong (0.946), suggesting agricultural droughts are most sensitive to 6-month scale meteorological droughts.
  • A positive correlation of 0.87 was found between rainfall and VCI in areas of woodland, cultivated land, and grassland.
  • Hydrological droughts generally respond with a delay to meteorological droughts; mild meteorological droughts rarely induce hydrological droughts, but persistent moderate-to-severe ones readily translate. Hydrological drought durations are typically shorter than corresponding meteorological drought durations.
  • The transmission of meteorological drought to agricultural drought is influenced by a combination of climatic factors (regional warming and humidification, glacier melting) and human factors (land cover changes, irrigation patterns).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, integrated analysis of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics and their interrelationships within the NSTM, addressing a critical research gap in this economically vital and water-stressed arid region.
• Quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution, intensity, and frequency of all three drought types over four decades, offering detailed insights into regional drought dynamics.
• Elucidates the specific response mechanisms, propagation pathways, and lag characteristics in the transmission of meteorological droughts to hydrological and agricultural droughts, including the modulating effects of cryospheric changes and anthropogenic interventions (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operations).
• Establishes a scientific basis for developing effective regional drought early warning systems and adaptive water resource management strategies, contributing to regional food security and ecological sustainability.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52269006)
• Projects of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (2023TSYCCX0114, 2022DB023, 2023AB059, BTYJXM-2024-S04)
• Major Science and Technology Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2024A03006–5)
• Project of Shihezi (2023NY01)

Citation

@article{Tian2026Characteristics,
  author = {Tian, Hao and Dan, Yier and Farid, M. A. and Li, H and Li, Xiaodong and Li, Pengfei and Liu, Bing and He, Xinlin and Gao, Yongli and Li, Fadong and Li, Yong and Xue, Lianqing and Yang, Guang},
  title = {Characteristics of drought evolution and response relationships on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103216},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103216}
}