Zhu et al. (2026) Exploring the combined effects of climate change and vegetation restoration on terrestrial water storage in China

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-06
• Authors: Wenzhe Zhu, Lei Zou, Jun Xia, Feiyu Wang, Liping Zhang, Chengjian Liu, Jiayuan Xu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103414

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
• School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
• State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Short Summary

This study quantifies the combined effects of climate change and vegetation restoration on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) in China from 1982 to 2020, revealing an overall TWSA decline and heterogeneous impacts of vegetation greening across different climate zones, mediated by precipitation and temperature.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal trends of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), climate, and vegetation variables in China from 1982 to 2020.
• To identify the direct and indirect impact pathways of climate change and vegetation restoration on TWSA variability across different climate zones.
• To quantify the relative contributions of climate change and vegetation restoration to regional-scale TWSA variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China, classified into arid (Aridity Index (AI) < 0.2), sub-arid (0.2 ≤ AI < 0.5), sub-humid (0.5 ≤ AI < 0.65), and humid (AI ≥ 0.65) regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1982–2020, analyzed in two sub-periods: 1982–2000 and 2000–2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen estimator, Partial correlation analysis, Linear detrending (least squares method).
• Data sources:
  • Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA): Reconstructed GRACE TWSA products (0.5° spatial resolution, 1979–2020).
  • Precipitation (P) and Surface Temperature (T): European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalysis version 5 (ERA5) (0.1° spatial resolution, 1982–2020).
  • Evapotranspiration (ET): Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) (0.25° spatial resolution, 1982–2020).
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): PKU GIMMS NDVI product (0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution, 1982–2022).
  • Plantation years: Global dataset of plantation years (1980–2020).
  • All data were harmonized to a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution.

Main Results

• From 1982 to 2020, the overall TWSA in China declined at a rate of −0.267 cm/a. The largest decreases were observed in sub-arid regions (−0.431 cm/a), followed by sub-humid (−0.352 cm/a) and arid regions (−0.198 cm/a). Increases occurred in humid regions (e.g., South China, Songhua River Basin) and the northern Tibetan Plateau.
• The influence of vegetation on TWSA shifted significantly after 2000. In arid and sub-arid regions, vegetation had a positive effect on TWSA before 2000 (contributing 45.80% and 16.17%, respectively), but after 2000, increased water demand and evapotranspiration led to a net negative effect (−42.07% in arid, −35.96% in sub-arid). Conversely, in humid regions, vegetation restoration positively contributed to water conservation, with its relative contribution increasing to 47.01%. In sub-humid regions, the negative effect of vegetation persisted but decreased from −44.26% to −34.44%.
• Climate change significantly influenced TWSA through direct and vegetation-mediated indirect effects. Precipitation was the primary positive driver across all climate zones, with its effectiveness moderated and indirectly enhanced by vegetation and evapotranspiration after 2000. Rising temperatures exerted a negative indirect effect on TWSA by increasing evapotranspiration, particularly pronounced in arid and sub-arid regions. In humid and sub-humid regions, vegetation shading moderated the negative impact of temperature rise on TWSA.

Contributions

• Quantified the combined effects of climate change and vegetation restoration on TWSA using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), effectively capturing both direct and indirect pathways often missed by traditional statistical methods.
• Provided a detailed, region-specific understanding of the heterogeneous impacts of vegetation greening on TWSA across different climate zones in China, highlighting shifts in influence mechanisms before and after 2000.
• Quantified the relative contributions of individual climate and vegetation factors to TWSA variability, offering critical mechanistic insights for enhancing hydrological models.
• Developed a transferable PLS-SEM framework for analyzing the mechanisms of climate change and vegetation restoration on TWSA, applicable to various regions globally.
• Provided valuable guidance for developing sustainable water resource management and vegetation restoration strategies that are tailored to regional climatic and ecological conditions.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2024YFC3013302)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42301035, 42101043)
• Key Water Science and Technology Project of Shandong Province (No. SDSLKJ2024003)

Citation

@article{Zhu2026Exploring,
  author = {Zhu, Wenzhe and Zou, Lei and Xia, Jun and Wang, Feiyu and Zhang, Liping and Liu, Chengjian and Xu, Jiayuan},
  title = {Exploring the combined effects of climate change and vegetation restoration on terrestrial water storage in China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103414},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103414}
}