Tuo et al. (2026) From multi-source data uncertainty to interval-based robust calibration: A transferable solution for hydrological modeling in data-scarce alpine basins

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-05
• Authors: Ye Tuo, Zheng Duan, Haritha P. Scaria, Giacomo Bertoldi, Mariapina Castelli
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103945

Research Groups

• Technical University of Munich, School of Engineering and Design, Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management
• Lund University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
• Eurac Research, Institute for Alpine Environment
• Eurac Research, Institute for Earth Observation

Short Summary

This study presents a transferable solution for hydrological modeling in data-scarce alpine basins by developing an interval-based robust calibration (IROC) framework. IROC combines interval consistency and plausibility to identify consensus parameter sets that maintain monthly evapotranspiration within multi-product bounds across subbasins and uncertainty levels.

Objective

• Evaluate spatiotemporal consistency of ET simulations obtained with IROC across subbasins, calibration and validation periods, and levels of inter-product uncertainty.
• Evaluate IROC against four single-reference calibration baselines with respect to ET performance and independent discharge realism.
• Examine how the converged consensus parameter space identified by IROC differs from the single-reference baselines.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Subbasin scale (23 subbasins) within the Adige River Basin, Italy.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly time step over a 5-year warm-up period (2001–2005), calibration (2006–2010), and validation (2011–2015).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT model with Hargreaves PET method.
• Data sources:
  • MOD16 V061, GLEAM 4.2a, PML V2, and ERA5-Land ET products.
  • CHIRPS for precipitation.
  • ERA5-Land for temperature.
  • Eurac Research streamflow observations.

Main Results

• IROC identified consensus parameter sets that maintained monthly ET within multi-product bounds across subbasins and uncertainty levels.
• Single-reference calibrations favored different parameter combinations and produced distinct discharge responses, demonstrating reference-dependent parameter inference and prediction.
• IROC balanced multi-product ET consistency, temporal robustness, central discharge accuracy, and retained ensemble compactness.

Contributions

• The interval-based robust calibration (IROC) framework provides a transferable solution for hydrological modeling in data-scarce alpine basins by accounting for inter-product differences and reducing reliance on single references.
• IROC respects model equifinality and yields a best-supported ensemble of physically plausible parameter sets.

Funding

• This research was funded by the EU Interreg Alpine Space project Alpine Drought Observatory (ADO).

Citation

@article{Tuo2026From,
  author = {Tuo, Ye and Duan, Zheng and Scaria, Haritha P. and Bertoldi, Giacomo and Castelli, Mariapina},
  title = {From multi-source data uncertainty to interval-based robust calibration: A transferable solution for hydrological modeling in data-scarce alpine basins},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103945},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103945}
}