Hong et al. (2026) Event-based 3D tracking of multi-type drought propagation in Xinjiang’s Mountain-Oasis-Desert system

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-07
• Authors: Jianzhu Li, Ping Feng, Ting Zhang, Fulong Chen, Xinwang Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103953

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation, Tianjin University
• College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University
• Hebei Institute of Water Science (Hebei Province Dam Safety Technology Center, Hebei Province Levee Sluice Technology Center)

Short Summary

This study proposes a novel framework integrating 3D spatiotemporal clustering with directed acyclic graph (DAG)-based network analysis for event-based identification and topological characterization of drought propagation in Xinjiang's Mountain-Oasis-Desert system. The framework represents drought events as continuous 3D spatiotemporal objects, integrates MD, HD, AD, and ED within a unified framework, and reconstructs cross-type propagation trajectories and stage-specific lag structures.

Objective

• To investigate the 3D spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of different drought types in Xinjiang's MOD system.
• To identify nonlinear topological structures and lag mechanisms governing drought propagation.
• To characterize the spatial differentiation of drought propagation across functional zones within the MOD continuum.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study area covers approximately 1.66 million km² in Xinjiang, China, with a spatial resolution of 0.1° for hydrological and soil data, and 250 m for remote sensing data.
• Temporal Scale: The dataset spans from 1960 to 2024, with monthly time steps.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), SRI (Standardized Runoff Index), SSMI (Standardized Soil Moisture Index), and SEDI (Standardized Ecological Drought Index) were used to quantify MD, HD, AD, and ED, respectively.
• Data sources: Multi-source datasets including gridded precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, NDVI, GPP, DEM, land cover, and basin boundaries.

Main Results

• A total of 231 3D drought events were identified, including 55 MD, 61 HD, 83 AD, and 32 ED events.
• The framework revealed 43 propagation event groups, dominated by the linear cascading mode (56%), with parallel and complex modes accounting for 21% and 23%, respectively.
• Propagation exhibited path-dependent lag structures and asymmetric cross-system coupling.

Contributions

• This study advances drought analysis beyond conventional time-series correlations toward event-based 3D network characterization.
• The framework provides a methodological framework for drought-risk identification and prevention in complex arid regions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52179004)
• Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA23050103)

Citation

@article{Hong2026Eventbased,
  author = {Hong, Liutianjiao and Li, Jianzhu and Feng, Ping and Zhang, Ting and Chen, Fulong and Li, Xinwang},
  title = {Event-based 3D tracking of multi-type drought propagation in Xinjiang’s Mountain-Oasis-Desert system},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103953},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103953}
}