Wang et al. (2026) Two decades of terrestrial water storage change in the Northern China Farming-Pastoral Ecotone (2002–2024): Components and drivers

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Tao Wang, Haitao Wei, Jing Wang, Guangyao Gao, Qingyu Feng, Hengliang Guo, Baojin Qiao, Minghui Zhang, Yongpei Zhao, Di Liu, Siyuan Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103955

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China
• School of Geoscience and Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
• University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
• National Supercomputing Center in Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
• School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies and its components in the Northern China Farming-Pastoral Ecotone (NCFPE) during 2002-2024. The results show that TWS exhibits pronounced meridional contrasts, with increases in the northeast and southwest but persistent declines across central and southern regions.

Objective

• Quantify the spatiotemporal variability of anomalies in TWS and its components
• Identify dominant factors, interactions, and statistical pathways using GeoDetector, Pearson correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM)

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, covering ~650,000 km2 in the Northern China Farming-Pastoral Ecotone (NCFPE)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly data from April 2002 to April 2024

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) gravity anomalies
  • Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land-surface models (Noah, CLSM, VIC)
  • GloLakes and GLWS datasets for surface water storage (SWS)
• Data sources:
  • GRACE/GRACE-FO RL06.3 mascon solutions
  • ERA5 total precipitation and 2-m air temperature
  • SPEI data with a spatial resolution of 0.5°
  • CAMELE dataset for evapotranspiration (ET)
  • Groundwater-level observations from China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring

Main Results

• TWS anomalies exhibit pronounced meridional contrasts, with increases in the northeast and southwest but persistent declines across central and southern regions.
• SWS anomalies show a predominantly positive linear tendency across the domain, with most areas experiencing increases in surface-water storage.
• Groundwater (GWS) anomalies follow a three-stage evolution: slow decline during 2002-2010, accelerated decline during 2011-2020, and reduced depletion with partial stabilization from 2020 onward.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex driving mechanisms of climate and vegetation changes on TWS variations across the NCFPE.
• The results highlight the importance of incorporating SWS into TWS assessments for sustainable water management in this ecologically sensitive region.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42122003)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Pilot Project (Grant No. XDB42000000)
• CAS Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-DQC005)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Two,
  author = {Wang, Tao and Wei, Haitao and Wang, Jing and Gao, Guangyao and Feng, Qingyu and Guo, Hengliang and Qiao, Baojin and Zhang, Minghui and Zhao, Yongpei and Liu, Di and Wang, Siyuan},
  title = {Two decades of terrestrial water storage change in the Northern China Farming-Pastoral Ecotone (2002–2024): Components and drivers},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103955},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103955}
}