Hoeg (2026) Changing controls on low flows in the Wiese catchment (southern Black Forest, Germany) under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-18
• Authors: Simon Hoeg
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103957

Research Groups

• Panorama Water Research (Wiesenbach, Germany)
• German Weather Service (DWD)
• Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)
• State Institute for Environment Baden-Württemberg (LUBW)
• Swiss Federal Office of the Environment (FOEN)

Short Summary

This study investigates historical and future low-flow dynamics in the Wiese catchment, a snow-influenced mountain catchment in southern Germany. The research combines long-term discharge observations, process-based hydrological modeling with HEC-HMS, and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections to assess how dominant controls on low-flow discharge have evolved over time.

Objective

• Investigate the evolution of flow regimes in the Wiese catchment during the historical period (1930–2019)
• Analyze seasonal water balance characteristics and runoff efficiency in relation to observed regime changes
• Assess future low-flow discharge conditions under CMIP6 climate scenarios SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 using a HEC-HMS model calibrated specifically for low-flow behavior

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Wiese catchment (454 km2) in the southern Black Forest, Germany
• Temporal Scale: 1930–2019 (historical analysis), 2015–2099 (future projections)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HEC-HMS (version 4.12)
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation, air temperature, and snow depth observations from three meteorological stations (Feldberg, Schopfheim, and Binningen)
  • Daily discharge data from three gauging stations (Zell, Tegernau, and Basel) within the Wiese River catchment
  • CMIP6 climate projections under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios

Main Results

• Historical low-flow discharge indicators increased during the late 20th century due to land-use change, reduced industrial water use, declining agricultural irrigation, and climatic variability
• Future low-flow discharge conditions are primarily associated with projected climatic forcing under both SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios
• The study demonstrates a shift in the dominant controls on low-flow discharge from historical catchment changes to future climatic forcing

Contributions

• This study provides an integrated assessment of low-flow dynamics in a mid-sized mountainous catchment, linking historical hydrological change with future climate projections
• The results contribute to improved understanding of climate-sensitive runoff regimes in mountain regions and support adaptive water management under changing climatic conditions

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Hoeg2026Changing,
  author = {Hoeg, Simon},
  title = {Changing controls on low flows in the Wiese catchment (southern Black Forest, Germany) under climate change},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103957},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103957}
}