Wang et al. (2026) Attribution and projection of runoff variability in a subtropical monsoon basin under changing environments

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-12
• Authors: Zhouxin Wang, Chuanfu Zang, Dongming Huang, Tianqi Zuo, Ting Chen
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103971

Research Groups

• School of Geography, South China Normal University
• Resource and Environment Science and Data Center

Short Summary

This study applies the Budyko–Porporato–Guswa coupling framework to investigate historical runoff variability in the Pearl River Basin during 1990–2020 and project future runoff responses during 2021–2060. The results show that climatic forcing, especially precipitation change, dominates basin-scale runoff variability.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of climate and vegetation changes on runoff variability in a subtropical monsoon basin.
• Project future runoff changes under different development pathways.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin-wide and sub-basin scale analysis within the Pearl River Basin.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1990–2020) and future projection period (2021–2060).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Budyko–Porporato–Guswa coupling framework, Bias-corrected GFDL-ESM4 outputs under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5.
• Data sources: Historical observations from 181 meteorological stations, CMIP6 GFDL-ESM4 model outputs, ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset.

Main Results

• The Budyko parameter derived from the BPG model represents actual runoff conditions well.
• Climatic forcing, especially precipitation change, dominates basin-scale runoff variability.
• Runoff was projected to decline by approximately 8% under SSP2–4.5 and 18.4% under SSP5–8.5 by 2060.

Contributions

• This study provides a physically based approach for attributing runoff variability in humid monsoon regions.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both basin-wide climatic controls and sub-basin heterogeneity in future water-resource management.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42171026)
• Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental and Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting (Grant No. GD2019-01)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Attribution,
  author = {Wang, Zhouxin and Zang, Chuanfu and Huang, Dongming and Zuo, Tianqi and Chen, Ting},
  title = {Attribution and projection of runoff variability in a subtropical monsoon basin under changing environments},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103971},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103971}
}