Ren et al. (2026) Integrated assessment of flood and drought risk in a context of declining terrestrial water storage in Northwest China: A broad perspective analysis

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-15
• Authors: Jintao Ren, Min Xu, Aihua Long, Jiawen Yu, Yunlong Wang, Jiaxi Liang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103987

Research Groups

• College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, China
• State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
• Southern Xinjiang joint Laboratory of Water System Science and Engineering, Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Authority, China

Short Summary

This study assesses flood and drought risk in Northwest China under declining terrestrial water storage conditions using GRACE satellite data and multi-source assimilated datasets. The results show significant spatial heterogeneity in TWS trends, with groundwater storage being the dominant contributor to TWS variations.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its components in Northwest China.
• Assess the flood and drought risks using a comprehensive risk assessment framework that integrates hazard probability, socioeconomic exposure, and ecological vulnerability.
• Explore the associations between large-scale atmospheric circulation indices and hydrological extremes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Northwest China)
• Temporal Scale: 2003-2023

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GRACE satellite data, GLDAS hydrological model outputs, Copula function for risk assessment.
• Data sources: GRACE satellite data, multi-source assimilated datasets (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration), atmospheric circulation indices (AO, ENSO, SOI).

Main Results

• Groundwater storage is the dominant contributor to TWS variations in Northwest China, accounting for 75.95% of the total TWS changes.
• The annual groundwater depletion in the Tarim Basin accounted for nearly half of the TWS decrease (-85.54 Gt/yr) in the entire region.
• Flood and drought probabilities are estimated using Copula function-based risk assessment model.
• Compound disaster probability is higher than single-hazard probability, indicating a high likelihood of hydrological instability caused by both dry and wet extremes.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights for improving disaster risk identification and management in arid inland regions by linking TWS changes and atmospheric circulation with hydrological hazards.
• The comprehensive risk assessment framework developed in this study can be applied to other regions with similar characteristics.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42122002), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Pioneer Program (XDB42000000), and the Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Authority (Grant No. XTRBA2022001).

Citation

@article{Ren2026Integrated,
  author = {Ren, Jintao and Xu, Min and Long, Aihua and Yu, Jiawen and Wang, Yunlong and Liang, Jiaxi},
  title = {Integrated assessment of flood and drought risk in a context of declining terrestrial water storage in Northwest China: A broad perspective analysis},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103987},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103987}
}