Liu et al. (2026) Meteorological to agricultural drought propagation and vegetation response across China

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-29
• Authors: Dong Liu, Zihan Ma, Liangliang Zhang, Nan Sun, Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Mo Li, Xiaochen Qi, Tianxiao Li, Song Cui, Zhaoqiang Zhou, Muhammad Imran Khan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104022

Research Groups

• College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China
• Joint International Research Laboratory of Habitat Health of Black Soil in Cold Regions, Ministry of Education, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China
• Key Laboratory of Effective Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China
• Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering in Cold Region, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China
• Research Center for Eco-Environment Protection of Songhua River Basin, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150030, China
• Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Short Summary

This study investigates the propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought across China, evaluating the cumulative and lagged vegetation responses to drought using satellite remote sensing data. The results show that agricultural drought lasts longer and is more severe than the triggering meteorological drought.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought in China.
• Quantify the propagation time from meteorological drought to agricultural drought.
• Examine the cumulative and lagged effects of drought on vegetation using satellite remote sensing data.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental scale, covering mainland China.
• Temporal Scale: 2000-2022, with a focus on long-term trends and variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Transformer model for gap-filling of SIF data.
• Data sources:
  • Satellite remote sensing data from MODIS and GOME-2 satellites.
  • ERA5-Land Reanalysis dataset for meteorological and hydrological variables.
  • CIrrMap250 dataset for irrigated cropland distribution.

Main Results

• Agricultural drought lasts longer and is more severe than the triggering meteorological drought.
• The median propagation time from meteorological drought to agricultural drought is 3-5 months.
• Vegetation responses to drought exhibit a pronounced lag effect, with NDVI and SIF responding approximately 5 months behind drought onset.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought in China.
• The results highlight the importance of considering the cumulative and lagged effects of drought on vegetation when assessing drought impacts.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51909246).
• Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering in Cold Region (Grant No. YK2020B01).

Citation

@article{Liu2026Meteorological,
  author = {Liu, Dong and Ma, Zihan and Zhang, Liangliang and Sun, Nan and Faiz, Muhammad Abrar and Li, Mo and Qi, Xiaochen and Li, Tianxiao and Cui, Song and Zhou, Zhaoqiang and Khan, Muhammad Imran},
  title = {Meteorological to agricultural drought propagation and vegetation response across China},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104022},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104022}
}