Ci et al. (2026) Quantification of flood-occurrence risks in the middle reaches of the Yellow River under climate and land-use changes

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-28
• Authors: Qianling Ci, Wenjing Wang, Chuyu Wu, Ying Han, Yuwei Wang, Xingda Chen, Yida Lu, Dan Li, ShuiSen Chen, Jinxia Fu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104034

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University
• State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A&F University
• Key Laboratory of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Remote Sensing Big Data Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences
• Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study developed an AHP–FCE framework integrated with GIS to assess and project flood-occurrence risk in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River (MRYR) under changing climatic and land-use conditions. The framework was evaluated using historical flood/non-flood reference locations, ROC-AUC, and spatial-block cross-validation.

Objective

• To quantify flood-occurrence risks in the MRYR under climate and land-use changes

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle Reaches of the Yellow River (MRYR), China
• Temporal Scale: 1990–2020 (historical) and 2050 (projected)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: AHP-FCE framework integrated with GIS
• Data sources:
  • Historical flood distribution map
  • Daily precipitation data from 49 meteorological stations
  • Temperature information for identifying warmest and coldest quarter
  • Land-use data for 2000, 2010, and 2020
  • Future land-use projections for 2050 under SSP1–1.9, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5

Main Results

• Historical flood-occurrence risk estimates were validated using documented flood-occurrence locations and hydrological observation stations without recorded flood events.
• The AUC values were 0.509 (95% CI: 0.188–0.827), 0.740 (95% CI: 0.618–0.847), and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.636–0.821) for 1990–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020, respectively.
• The spatial-block cross-validation yielded mean AUC values of 0.595 ± 0.421, 0.816 ± 0.115, and 0.733 ± 0.126 for the three periods, respectively.

Contributions

• This study provides a clearer regional basis for identifying flood-prone areas and supporting climate-adaptive management in the MRYR.
• The AHP–FCE framework integrated with GIS is an interpretable means of integrating heterogeneous climatic, topographic, hydrological, and land-use factors within an explicit weighting framework.

Funding

• This research was funded by [list projects, programs, and reference codes that funded this research].

Citation

@article{Ci2026Quantification,
  author = {Ci, Qianling and Wang, Wenjing and Wu, Chuyu and Han, Ying and Wang, Yuwei and Chen, Xingda and Lu, Yida and Li, Dan and Chen, ShuiSen and Fu, Jinxia},
  title = {Quantification of flood-occurrence risks in the middle reaches of the Yellow River under climate and land-use changes},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104034},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104034}
}