Dolan et al. (2026) Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-31
• Authors: Wayana Dolan, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Jay Christensen, Charles R. Lane, Grey R. Evenson
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133

Research Groups

• U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center
• Office of Applied Science and Environmental Solutions, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Office of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Lane Ecological Advisory LLC

Short Summary

This study demonstrates the importance of incorporating surface water storage dynamics into hydrological model calibration processes to improve accuracy in simulating river discharge and flood impact predictions. A multivariate calibration approach that includes satellite-based surface water storage estimates was found to reduce model output uncertainty.

Objective

• Investigate the effect of including surface water storage on SWAT model performance in simulating daily discharge and biweekly surface water storage.
• Evaluate the sensitivity of downstream discharge to changes in surface water storage capacity in non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Upper Mississippi River Basin, spanning portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
• Temporal Scale: Daily time step for discharge simulations, biweekly time step for surface water storage simulations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with modifications to include remote sensing-informed surface water storage estimates.
• Data sources: Sentinel-1 and -2 satellite data for surface water extent and depth, Daymet version 4 R1 weather forcing data.

Main Results

• Multivariate calibration approach that includes satellite-based surface water storage estimates reduced model output uncertainty.
• Surface water storage capacity in NFWs was found to have a significant impact on downstream discharge, with increases in upstream surface water storage capacity resulting in projected decreases in peak flow and flashiness.
• The best calibrated model was used to simulate the effects of changes in surface water storage capacity on downstream discharge.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the importance of incorporating surface water storage dynamics into hydrological model calibration processes.
• The multivariate calibration approach developed in this study can be applied to other large watersheds with similar characteristics.

Funding

• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Citation

@article{Dolan2026Multivariate,
  author = {Dolan, Wayana and Vanderhoof, Melanie K. and Golden, Heather E. and Christensen, Jay and Lane, Charles R. and Evenson, Grey R.},
  title = {Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133}
}