Huang et al. (2026) An integrated vine-copula-based modeling framework for risk assessment and interval chance-constrained optimization of the water-energy-food nexus in a coastal watershed

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-25
• Authors: Zhixin Huang, Lei Jin, Yurui Fan, L. Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107184

Research Groups

College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, China
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brunel University London, UK
College of Mathematics and Statistics, Xiamen University of Technology, China

Short Summary

This study develops a vine-copula-based framework to assess correlated resource risks in agricultural water-energy-food nexus (WEFN) systems and optimize decision-making for sustainable food production.

Objective

• Investigate the compound risks arising from interactions among multiple uncertain factors in WEFN systems.
• Develop an integrated modeling framework to support risk-informed decision-making for enhancing agricultural sustainability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Annual resolution at a watershed scale (Jiulong River Basin).
• Temporal Scale: 2017-2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Vine-copula-based framework integrating joint-risk characterization, interval chance-constrained optimization, and multi-criteria scenario evaluation.
• Data sources: Historical data on water, energy, and food resources from the Jiulong River Basin.

Main Results

• Integrated system risk exceeds individual subsystem risks but remains below their sum.
• Increasing violation probability expands feasible allocation ranges and increases the lower-bound sown area by 2.4%.

Contributions

• Original value of the article with respect to existing literature: The study provides a novel vine-copula-based framework for assessing correlated resource risks in WEFN systems, which can support decision-making for sustainable food production.

Funding

• This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52177022) and the Fujian Provincial Department of Education (Grant No. JAT200111).

Citation

@article{Huang2026integrated,
  author = {Huang, Zhixin and Jin, Lei and Fan, Yurui and Wang, L.},
  title = {An integrated vine-copula-based modeling framework for risk assessment and interval chance-constrained optimization of the water-energy-food nexus in a coastal watershed},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107184},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107184}
}