Atlaw et al. (2026) Hydrological responses to future climate and land use/land cover change in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A systematic review

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-16
• Authors: Kebede Bekele Atlaw, Wondimagegn Mengist, Estifanos Lemma, Belihu Nigatu Gorfie, Hailu Kendie Addis, Sebsibeh Gizachew Mengistie, Esubalew Ayimere Awoke
• DOI: 10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100049

Research Groups

• Amhara Agricultural Research Institute, Debre Berhan Agricultural Research Center
• Department of Natural Resource Management, Debre Berhan University
• Amhara Agricultural Research Institute, P.O. Box 527, Bahir Dar
• Department of Natural Resource Management, Mekdela Amba University
• Department of Geology, Debre Berhan University

Short Summary

This systematic review synthesizes existing scientific literature on projected climate and land use/land cover change impacts on hydrological components in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Ethiopia. The study finds that future reductions in dry-season flow of approximately 35–50% are expected under specific climate scenarios, alongside increases in wet-season peak flows.

Objective

• To examine the projected impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on hydrological responses in the UBNB.
• To identify knowledge gaps and uncertainties in projecting future hydrology under changing climate and land use/land cover conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) in Ethiopia, with a spatial extent of approximately 175,000–179,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: The review examines projected changes over various time horizons, including near-future (2030s), mid-century (2050s), and end-of-century (2080s).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT, WEAP, HEC-HMS, HBV, and other hydrological models were employed to simulate future hydrological responses.
• Data sources: The review drew on a range of data sources, including satellite and observation-based datasets, reanalysis products, and climate model outputs.

Main Results

• Future reductions in dry-season flow of approximately 35–50% are expected under specific climate scenarios.
• Increases in wet-season peak flows are projected across the UBNB.
• Land use/land cover change alone is associated with a projected 5–24% future increase in Surface Runoff (SR) and reduced baseflow.

Contributions

• The study provides a comprehensive synthesis of existing literature on projected climate and land use/land cover change impacts on hydrological components in the UBNB.
• The findings highlight the need for proactive and integrated watershed management, including sustainable land-use planning, soil and water conservation, reforestation, and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Funding

• This study was supported by the Amhara Agricultural Research Institute, Debre Berhan University, and Mekdela Amba University.

Citation

@article{Atlaw2026Hydrological,
  author = {Atlaw, Kebede Bekele and Mengist, Wondimagegn and Lemma, Estifanos and Gorfie, Belihu Nigatu and Addis, Hailu Kendie and Mengistie, Sebsibeh Gizachew and Awoke, Esubalew Ayimere},
  title = {Hydrological responses to future climate and land use/land cover change in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A systematic review},
  journal = {Hydrology research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100049},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100049}
}