Dehimi et al. (2026) A hybrid methodological framework for flood risk assessment in data-scarce semi-arid basins: Integrating fuzzy AHP and climate scenarios in the Hodna Basin, Algeria

Identification

• Journal: Journal of African Earth Sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-27
• Authors: Salim Dehimi, Naim Harkat, Halima Hebiri Madani
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2026.106104

Research Groups

• City, Environment, Hydraulic and Sustainable Development Laboratory (VEHDD), Department of City and Urbanism, Institute of Urban Technology Management, University Mohamed Boudiaf of M’Sila, M’Sila, Algeria
• City, Environment, Hydraulic and Sustainable Development Laboratory (VEHDD), Department of Architecture, Institute of Architecture and Earth Sciences, Ferhat Abbas University S´etif 1, S´etif, Algeria

Short Summary

This study developed a hybrid framework integrating Fuzzy AHP and CMIP6 climate scenarios to assess current and future flood risk in Algeria's data-scarce Great Hodna Basin, providing an operational tool for climate-resilient land-use planning.

Objective

• To develop and apply a hybrid methodological framework for assessing current and future flood risk in data-scarce semi-arid basins, specifically the Great Hodna Basin, Algeria.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Great Hodna Basin (26,000 km²), with an Analysed Study Area (ASA) of 3956 km².
• Temporal Scale: Historical flood inventory (multi-source, unspecified period), future flood risk projections up to 2100 using CMIP6 climate scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) for susceptibility modeling, CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) for future projections.
• Data sources: Multi-source historical flood inventory (SAR imagery, field interviews, archival documentation), fourteen geospatial, hydrological, climatic, and geological conditioning factors, Google Open Buildings v3 footprints for urban exposure validation.

Main Results

• The Fuzzy AHP model demonstrated strong predictive performance with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.80.
• 47.30% of the Analysed Study Area (ASA) was classified as having ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ flood susceptibility.
• High-risk zones are concentrated in low-lying floodplains surrounding the Chott El-Hodna depression and within major urban centres.
• CMIP6 projections indicate a substantial increase in extreme rainfall events, with up to a 25% increase under the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100.
• This projected increase in extreme rainfall is expected to lead to a marked intensification of flood risk.

Contributions

• Proposes a novel hybrid methodological framework integrating multi-source historical flood data, Fuzzy AHP, precise urban exposure validation, and CMIP6 climate scenarios for comprehensive flood risk assessment.
• Effectively addresses the challenge of data scarcity prevalent in semi-arid regions.
• Delivers an operational integrated risk map, serving as a valuable tool for climate-resilient land-use planning and long-term adaptation strategies.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dehimi2026hybrid,
  author = {Dehimi, Salim and Harkat, Naim and Madani, Halima Hebiri},
  title = {A hybrid methodological framework for flood risk assessment in data-scarce semi-arid basins: Integrating fuzzy AHP and climate scenarios in the Hodna Basin, Algeria},
  journal = {Journal of African Earth Sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2026.106104},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2026.106104}
}