Gao et al. (2026) Flash flood dynamics in complex terrain system and its impact mechanism based on non-linear regression and geodetector

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Yao Gao, Jiabin Peng, Junxu Chen, Jicong Wu, Yan Zhu, Xuan Ji, Luyuan Zhao, Ziyao Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128454

Research Groups

• Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of China-Laos-Bangladesh-Myanmar Natural Resources Remote Sensing Monitoring, Key Laboratory of Karst Processes and Water-Land Resources Allocation of the Yunnan provincial Education Department, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091, China
• Yunnan Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion Prevention and Green Development, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650504, China
• Kunming General Survey of Natural Resources Center, China Geological Survey, Kunming, 650100, Yunnan, China
• School of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatial distribution, dynamics, and driving factors of flash floods in Yunnan Province, China, revealing their concentration in central Yunnan and distinct nonlinear driving mechanisms for precipitation, anthropogenic, and surface environmental factors. The findings provide novel insights for flash flood risk assessment and mitigation strategies in complex terrain systems.

Objective

• To reveal the spatial distribution, dynamics, and driving factors of flash floods in Yunnan Province, China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yunnan Province, China, with a focus on central Yunnan (between 24°N and 27°N).
• Temporal Scale: Disaster point survey data since 1955.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Geodetector analysis, function fitting simulations, nonlinear curve-fitting analyses (double-exponential model for precipitation and anthropogenic factors, power-law decay window for surface environmental factors).
• Data sources: Disaster point survey data (since 1955).

Main Results

• Flash floods are concentrated in central Yunnan between 24°N and 27°N.
• High-risk areas are characterized by elevations of 1500–2000 m, slopes ≤25°, and annual rainfall between 680 and 1410 mm.
• Precipitation and anthropogenic factors exhibit a "maximum sensitivity window," best described by a double-exponential model, where flood probability peaks near specific thresholds.
• Surface environmental factors follow a power-law decay window, indicating a risk-decay mechanism where susceptibility decreases as factor intensity increases.
• The influence of driving factors decreases in the order: disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing body factors, and disaster-prone environment factors.
• Synergistic effects among factors show nonlinear enhancements.
• Regional variations in primary drivers include combined effects of precipitation and surface conditions in northern watersheds, precipitation and human activities in central watersheds, and precipitation alone in southern watersheds.

Contributions

• Provides novel insights into the mechanisms and spatial dynamics of flash floods in complex terrain systems.
• Offers valuable scientific support for flash flood risk assessment and the development of mitigation strategies in complex terrain regions.

Funding

• Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Gao2026Flash,
  author = {Gao, Yao and Peng, Jiabin and Chen, Junxu and Wu, Jicong and Zhu, Yan and Ji, Xuan and Zhao, Luyuan and Wang, Ziyao},
  title = {Flash flood dynamics in complex terrain system and its impact mechanism based on non-linear regression and geodetector},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128454},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128454}
}