López et al. (2026) Post-abandonment management strategies influence future soil organic carbon storage and water resources

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Melani Cortijos López, Munoz-Rojas Miriam, Javier Zabalza-Martínez, Lasanta Teodoro, Nadal-Romero Estela
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128534

Research Groups

• Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain.
• Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiologia, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IRNAS-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain.

Short Summary

This study evaluates how three post-abandonment land management strategies—shrub clearing for pasture, secondary succession, and afforestation—affect soil organic carbon (SOC) and water resources in a Mediterranean mountain valley under various IPCC climate scenarios. The findings indicate that while afforestation maximizes carbon sequestration, shrub clearing for agroforestry significantly enhances water yield and provides a balanced socio-economic and environmental outcome.

Objective

• To analyze the long-term impact of different post-abandonment management strategies and climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) on soil organic carbon storage and water resource provision.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Catchment scale (Leza Valley, Iberian System, Spain; elevation 600–1800 m).
• Temporal Scale: Medium-term (2035–2065) and long-term (2070–2100) projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • CarboSOIL: An empirical model based on multiple regression and Box-Cox transformations used to simulate SOC dynamics at depths of 0–25 cm and 25–50 cm.
  • RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System): A process-based dynamic model used to simulate streamflow and eco-hydrological fluxes.
• Data sources:
  • Climate: CMIP6 projections (33 model simulations), AEMET, and SAIH historical records (1962–2018).
  • Soil: Laboratory analysis of 368 soil samples (bulk density, pH, texture, nitrogen, and SOC).
  • Land Use/Cover: SIOSE 2014 database, National Forestry Inventory III, and regional Digital Elevation Models (DEM).

Main Results

• SOC Dynamics: Climate change alone is projected to reduce SOC stocks (up to -2.6% in shrublands by 2100 under SSP5-8.5). However, all management strategies offset these losses, resulting in a net increase in SOC compared to current values.
• Sequestration Capacity: Afforestation yielded the highest increase in SOC stocks in both the medium and long term, followed by secondary succession.
• Water Resources: Shrub clearing and agroforestry emerged as the most effective strategy for water provision, with potential streamflow increases of up to 40% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario by the end of the century.
• Integrated Balance: Shrub clearing and agroforestry provide a superior integrated soil-water balance, combining environmental resilience with socio-economic benefits for rural revitalization.

Contributions

• Integrates two distinct modeling frameworks (CarboSOIL and RHESSys) to provide a holistic assessment of ecosystem services (carbon vs. water) in Mediterranean mountain regions.
• Demonstrates that active management (shrub clearing) can mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of natural revegetation and climate change.
• Provides evidence-based scenarios for land managers to balance carbon sequestration goals with the need for water resource security and rural economic development.

Funding

• MANMOUNT project (PID2019–105983RB-100) funded by MICINN-FEDER (MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033).
• MOUNTWATER project (TED2021-131982BeI00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and NextGeneration EU/PRTR.
• Arag´on Government and European Social Fund (Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change group, E02_23R).
• FPI contract (PRE2020–094509) from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.

Citation

@article{López2026Postabandonment,
  author = {López, Melani Cortijos and Miriam, Munoz-Rojas and Zabalza-Martínez, Javier and Teodoro, Lasanta and Estela, Nadal-Romero},
  title = {Post-abandonment management strategies influence future soil organic carbon storage and water resources},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128534},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128534}
}

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