Wang et al. (2026) Cumulative and lagged effects of climate factors on vegetation end of the growing season in the Yangtze River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-26
• Authors: Jie Wang, Jiangong You, Mingxuan Yi, Weiqi Huo, Dongming Zhang, Yonglin Shen, Kelin Sui
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129412

Research Groups

• Langfang Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Langfang, China
• Innovation Base of Natural Resources Change Observation and Capital Monitoring in the Northern Haihe River Basin of China Society of Territorial Economists, Langfang, China
• Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Command Center for Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey, China Geological Survey, Beijing, China
• National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China

Short Summary

This study quantifies the cumulative and lagged effects of temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on the end of the growing season (EOS) in the Yangtze River Basin from 2001-2023. It reveals that incorporating these temporal effects significantly improves the explanation of EOS variability and prediction accuracy, highlighting their critical role in phenology modeling.

Objective

• To characterize and quantify the cumulative and lagged effects of key climatic drivers—specifically temperature (TEM), solar radiation (SR), and precipitation (PRE)—on the end of the growing season (EOS) in the Yangtze River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yangtze River Basin, China
• Temporal Scale: 2001-2023

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Partial correlation analysis, ridge regression
• Data sources:
  • Vegetation phenology: MCD12Q2 product
  • Monthly climate variables (TEM, SR, PRE): TerraClimate dataset

Main Results

• The basin-averaged EOS trend showed a delay of 0.18 days per year.
• Growing season trends were 0.03 °C per year for temperature, -1.98 W/m² per year for solar radiation, and 0.17 mm per year for precipitation.
• Lagged effects predominantly governed the EOS response to solar radiation, while cumulative effects were dominant for temperature and precipitation.
• Solar radiation exerted influence over longer cumulative (6.23 ± 3.75 months) and lagged (8.21 ± 3.32 months) timescales compared to temperature and precipitation.
• Grasslands responded fastest to precipitation among the four major vegetation types.
• Incorporating temporal effects allowed the three climate factors to account for 64.50% of the EOS variability (Root Mean Square Error = 4.91 days), an improvement of 14.30% over models neglecting temporal effects, and reduced the prediction error by 2.26 days.

Contributions

• Quantified the cumulative and lagged effects of temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on the end of the growing season (EOS) in the Yangtze River Basin.
• Demonstrated that incorporating these temporal effects significantly improves the explanation of EOS variability and prediction accuracy in phenology models.
• Highlighted the critical role of temporal effects for phenology modeling and climate-vegetation interaction assessments.
• Provided insights into the differential responses of various vegetation types to climate factors.

Funding

• Not explicitly listed in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Cumulative,
  author = {Wang, Jie and You, Jiangong and Yi, Mingxuan and Huo, Weiqi and Zhang, Dongming and Shen, Yonglin and Sui, Kelin},
  title = {Cumulative and lagged effects of climate factors on vegetation end of the growing season in the Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129412},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129412}
}