He et al. (2026) Unraveling future hydrological and sediment dynamics through an integrated GCMs-PLUS-SWAT coupling framework

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-23
• Authors: Ning He, Chang Li, Yanfang Hao, Wenxain Guo, Yuzhong Zhang, Fan Tong, Hongxiang Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129437

Research Groups

• Zhengzhou Yellow River Bureau of Henan Yellow River Bureau, Zhengzhou, China
• Zhongke Xinhe Construction Development Co., Ltd., Linzhou, China
• Fujian Polytechnic of Water Conservation and Electric Power, Yongan, China
• North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China

Short Summary

This study developed an integrated GCMs-PLUS-SWAT framework to project future hydrological and sediment dynamics in the Yangtze River Basin under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, revealing significant increases in precipitation and temperature, distinct intra-annual streamflow redistribution, and spatiotemporal divergence in sediment transport.

Objective

• To quantify projected hydrological element evolution (streamflow and sediment dynamics) in the Yangtze River Basin under SSP245 and SSP585 climate and land-use change scenarios using an integrated GCMs-PLUS-SWAT coupling framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yangtze River Basin
• Temporal Scale: Future periods up to 2100, including near-term and long-term projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation), GCMs (General Circulation Models - specifically CMIP6 climate projections).
• Data sources: Multi-resolution data (for SWAT model database), CMIP6 climate projections.

Main Results

• Model validation showed high accuracy for streamflow simulation (R² = 0.83–0.95) and credible upstream sediment load simulation (R² = 0.82–0.85).
• Under the SSP585 scenario, precipitation increase was 4.43% higher and maximum temperature rises reached up to 10.29 °C during the latter period compared to SSP245.
• Seasonal heterogeneity in erosional processes intensified, with summer sediment load declines and slight autumn/winter increases.
• Projected annual streamflow increases under SSP585 later in the century were 28.6% higher than under SSP245, exhibiting distinct intra-annual redistribution: increases in winter/spring, decreases in summer, and compensatory increases (over 50% contribution) in autumn.
• Sediment transport showed significant spatiotemporal divergence; near-term SSP585 projections indicated a dramatic 93.88% sediment load surge at Cuntan Station (upper basin), shifting to long-term decline due to synergistic climate-substrate interactions.
• Mid-lower basin sediment loads stabilized, primarily driven by hydraulic engineering regulations.
• The study revealed asymmetrical responses of water-sediment processes under high-emission scenarios.

Contributions

• Development and application of a novel integrated GCMs-PLUS-SWAT framework for comprehensive future projections of hydrological and sediment dynamics under coupled climate and land-use change.
• Quantification of asymmetrical responses of water-sediment processes under high-emission scenarios, providing a scientific basis for integrated watershed water resource management and ecological conservation.

Funding

• No specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes were mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{He2026Unraveling,
  author = {He, Ning and Li, Chang and Hao, Yanfang and Guo, Wenxain and Zhang, Yuzhong and Tong, Fan and Wang, Hongxiang},
  title = {Unraveling future hydrological and sediment dynamics through an integrated GCMs-PLUS-SWAT coupling framework},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129437},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129437}
}