Ma et al. (2026) Widespread strengthening vegetation responses and lengthening drought-accumulation timescales across China over the past four decades

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-29
• Authors: Jiahao Ma, Meiling Gao, Chuang Song, Zhenhong Li, Xinxin Fu, Meiling Zhou, Lili Chen, Jianbing Peng
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131026

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China
• College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China
• Big Data Center for Geosciences and Satellites, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China
• Key Laboratory of Western China's Mineral Resources and Geological Engineering, Ministry of Education, Xi'an, 710054, China

Short Summary

This study quantified the spatiotemporal changes in maximum vegetation drought response intensity (Rmax) and optimal drought-accumulation timescale (Topt) across China from 1983 to 2022, revealing widespread strengthening vegetation responses and lengthening drought-accumulation timescales.

Objective

• To quantify the long-term spatiotemporal changes in maximum vegetation response intensity (Rmax) and optimal drought-accumulation timescale (Topt) across China from 1983 to 2022.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China
• Temporal Scale: 1983 to 2022 (40 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Moving-window analysis, multi-timescale correlation analysis, XGBoost-SHAP analysis.
• Data sources: Multi-source vegetation and climate datasets, two vegetation indices (kNDVI, NIRv).

Main Results

• Increasing trends in maximum vegetation response intensity (Rmax) were more widespread than decreasing trends, though the national mean trend varied.
• Optimal drought-accumulation timescale (Topt) showed a consistent lengthening tendency, indicating increasing associations between vegetation variability and moisture conditions accumulated over longer timescales.
• Water-deficit and non-woody regions generally exhibited higher Rmax and shorter Topt, while water-surplus and woody-dominated regions showed lower Rmax and longer Topt.
• Topt significantly increased in both water-deficit and water-surplus regions identified using kNDVI.
• The spatial relationship between Rmax and Topt was generally weak and heterogeneous, with no consistent temporal change in their coupling.
• XGBoost-SHAP analysis suggested nonlinear associations of Rmax and Topt trends with solar radiation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, aridity, atmospheric dryness, and precipitation.

Contributions

• Reveals widespread shifts in vegetation drought-response characteristics across China, providing a scientific basis for assessing ecosystem vulnerability and improving drought-risk management under ongoing climate change.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ma2026Widespread,
  author = {Ma, Jiahao and Gao, Meiling and Song, Chuang and Li, Zhenhong and Fu, Xinxin and Zhou, Meiling and Chen, Lili and Peng, Jianbing},
  title = {Widespread strengthening vegetation responses and lengthening drought-accumulation timescales across China over the past four decades},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131026}
}