Mohammed et al. (2026) Performance evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs and projection of precipitation extremes over the Jemma sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia

Identification

• Journal: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-05
• Authors: Jemal Ali Mohammed, Mansour Almazroui, Irfan Ur Rashid, Shuraik Kader, Selemon Tsegaye Wubetu, Temesgen Gashaw, Dessalegn Worku Ayalew, Gebrekidan Worku Tefera, Solomon Addissu, Megbar Wondie
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104821

Research Groups

• College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Mekdela Amba University, Tulu Awuliya, Ethiopia
• Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
• Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
• Research and Development Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan
• School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Brisbane South (Nathan) Campus, QLD, 4111, Australia
• Department of Natural Resources Management, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
• Department of Natural Resources Management, College of Dry Land Agriculture, Kabridahar University, Kebri Dehar, Ethiopia
• College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, Prairie View A & M University, Prairie View, TX, 77446, USA
• Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, Bonn, 53113, Germany
• Department of Soil Resources and Watershed Management, College of Agricultural Sciences, Woldia University, Ethiopia
• Department of Physics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating extreme precipitation indices over the Jemma sub-basin in Ethiopia. The results show that MIROC6, EC-Earth 3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0, and ACCESS-ESM1-5 are among the top-performing models for various precipitation indices.

Objective

• Evaluate the performance of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating extreme precipitation indices over the Jemma sub-basin.
• Project future changes in extreme precipitation under different SSP scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Jemma sub-basin, a region within the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia.
• Temporal Scale: The study period covers 1995-2014 for historical data and three-time horizons: near (2030-2049), mid (2060-2079), and far future (2080-2099) for projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 GCMs, including MIROC6, EC-Earth 3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0, ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1, NorESM2-MM, GFDL-ESM4, and GISS-E2-1-G.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation data from seven meteorological stations in the Jemma sub-basin.

Main Results

• The study found significant upward trends in R10mm and SDII at Gohatsion station.
• MIROC6 demonstrated strong performance in simulating absolute threshold indices (R10mm and R20mm).
• EC-Earth 3-Veg excelled in simulating RX5day, while MRI-ESM2-0 performed well for Rx1day.
• ACCESS-ESM1-5 was the first-ranked best-performing climate model for SDII.

Contributions

• This study provides a localized evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices over the Jemma sub-basin.
• The results can inform water resource management and climate adaptation planning in the region.

Funding

• This research was funded by [insert funding agency/project name and reference code].

Citation

@article{Mohammed2026Performance,
  author = {Mohammed, Jemal Ali and Almazroui, Mansour and Rashid, Irfan Ur and Kader, Shuraik and Wubetu, Selemon Tsegaye and Gashaw, Temesgen and Ayalew, Dessalegn Worku and Tefera, Gebrekidan Worku and Addissu, Solomon and Wondie, Megbar},
  title = {Performance evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs and projection of precipitation extremes over the Jemma sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia},
  journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2026.104821},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104821}
}