Sun et al. (2026) Assessing the impacts of climate and human activities on NDVI trends in Shanxi Province, a semiarid–semihumid region of China

Identification

• Journal: Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Yujing Sun, Guoqiang Peng, Jing Li, Xiaogang Huang, Jia Rong
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101913

Research Groups

• School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
• School of Geographical Science, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatiotemporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends in Shanxi Province, China, from 1986 to 2023 to quantify the relative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic factors. It found a significant increase in vegetation NDVI, with precipitation and gross domestic product (GDP) as dominant drivers, and varying influences of human activities and climate across different sub-regions.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation cover in Shanxi Province from 1986 to 2023, identify long-term NDVI trends, and quantify the relative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic factors to these changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Shanxi Province, China (a semiarid–semihumid region).
• Temporal Scale: 1986 to 2023 (38 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, multiple regression residual analysis, partial derivative analysis, and contribution analysis.
• Data sources:
  • NDVI time series (multisource datasets)
  • Meteorological data (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration)
  • Socioeconomic indicators (GDP, population density)

Main Results

• The vegetation NDVI significantly increased over the past 38 years, with a positive trend slope of 0.0107 per year, and more than 88% of the region exhibiting a positive vegetation trend.
• Precipitation and GDP were identified as the dominant driving factors influencing vegetation dynamics, indicating the combined impact of natural and socioeconomic factors.
• Human influence was dominant in the northern semiarid regions (e.g., Shuozhou: human contribution 0.401 vs. climate contribution 0.262; Datong: human contribution 0.378 vs. climate contribution 0.216).
• Climate factors exerted stronger effects in the southern semihumid prefectures (e.g., Linfen: climate contribution 0.423).

Contributions

This study provides scientific evidence by quantifying the relative contributions of climate and human activities to vegetation changes in a semiarid–semihumid transition zone. These findings support the development of targeted ecological management and sustainable development strategies for similar regions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42201517)

Citation

@article{Sun2026Assessing,
  author = {Sun, Yujing and Peng, Guoqiang and Li, Jing and Huang, Xiaogang and Rong, Jia},
  title = {Assessing the impacts of climate and human activities on NDVI trends in Shanxi Province, a semiarid–semihumid region of China},
  journal = {Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101913},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101913}
}