Worako (2026) Multi-index meteorological and agricultural drought analysis using CMIP6 climate models in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin

Identification

• Journal: Scientific African
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Adimasu Woldesenbet Worako
• DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03649

Research Groups

• Department of Water Resources Engineering, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia

Short Summary

This study analyzed multi-index meteorological and agricultural drought analysis using CMIP6 climate models in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin. The findings indicate that EC-Earth3-CC model outperforms in simulating the reference period drought condition and selected for further future drought analysis.

Objective

• To analyze multi-index meteorological and agricultural drought analysis using CMIP6 climate models in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin.
• To evaluate the performance of four climate models (EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) in simulating reference period drought conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study was conducted in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB), which lies between 36.65–39.41°E longitude and 4.37–8.43°N latitude.
• Temporal Scale: The study analyzed drought conditions from 1981 to 2010 for reference period and mid-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods for future scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 climate models (EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR)
• Data sources: CHIRPS/CHIRTS_daily data for reference period and climate model data for future scenario.

Main Results

• The study found that EC-Earth3-CC model outperforms in simulating reference period drought conditions.
• The results indicate that 1984 was an extreme drought year, with all four drought indices showing severe to extreme drought conditions.
• The study also found that the climate models simulated a increasing trend of drought severity and frequency in the future scenario.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating drought conditions in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin.
• The findings can be used to improve drought early warning systems and inform water resources management decisions.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Worako2026Multiindex,
  author = {Worako, Adimasu Woldesenbet},
  title = {Multi-index meteorological and agricultural drought analysis using CMIP6 climate models in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin},
  journal = {Scientific African},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03649},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03649}
}