Dang et al. (2026) Climate-induced hydrological changes and agricultural implications in the Laurentian Great Lakes region

Identification

• Journal: The Science of The Total Environment
• Year: 2026
• Authors: Huy Dang, Yadu Pokhrel, Andrew D. Gronewold
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181355

Research Groups

• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States.
• School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States.

Short Summary

This study provides the first comprehensive basin-wide assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin's hydrological response to climate change, projecting significant seasonal shifts and a decline in growing-season soil moisture. The research highlights a critical trade-off between increased overall surface water storage and heightened agricultural water stress due to earlier spring peaks and summer drying.

Objective

• To quantify the basin-wide hydrological responses of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB) to climatic drivers under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• To evaluate changes in streamflow, lake levels, soil moisture, and surface water availability to understand implications for regional water management and agriculture.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The entire Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), North America.
• Temporal Scale: Historical baseline (1980–2014) compared against future projections (2025–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-model climate simulations, hydrologic simulations, and hydrodynamic modeling.
• Data sources: Climate projections under three scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions), SSP3-7.0 (medium-to-high emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions).

Main Results

• Temperature and Precipitation: Projected basin-average warming of 3–8 °C by 2100, with precipitation redistributing toward winter and spring and declining during summer.
• Soil Moisture: A projected decline of up to 12% during the critical crop growing season, indicating increased agricultural vulnerability.
• Hydrological Timing: Spring peak flows are projected to occur up to 40 days earlier than historical norms across major areas of the basin.
• Water Storage and Levels: Surface water storage is likely to increase by up to 20%, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with lake water levels projected to rise gradually under all scenarios.
• Drought Trends: Streamflow drought occurrence is expected to decrease across most of the basin, with the exception of eastern regions where risks may persist or increase.

Contributions

• Represents the first comprehensive, basin-wide evaluation of the GLB’s hydrological response attributed to climatic drivers across the entire 21st century.
• Integrates multi-model climate-hydrologic-hydrodynamic frameworks to bridge the gap between regional climate shifts and localized agricultural/water management implications.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dang2026Climateinduced,
  author = {Dang, Huy and Pokhrel, Yadu and Gronewold, Andrew D.},
  title = {Climate-induced hydrological changes and agricultural implications in the Laurentian Great Lakes region},
  journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181355},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2026.181355}
}

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