Nouri et al. (2026) Climate change and the future of winter wheat in Iran: Insights for food and water security

Identification

• Journal: Sustainable Futures
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-14
• Authors: Milad Nouri, Shadman Veysi
• DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.102144

Research Groups

• Soil and Water Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO)
• University of Karaj, Iran

Short Summary

This study assesses the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield and water use across Iran using a high-resolution, continuous gridded framework. The results show that irrigated wheat yields will increase by 5.1% to 17.7% under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, while rainfed yields will increase by 14.1% to 60.9%. However, the national self-sufficiency ratio is projected to decline due to population growth.

Objective

• Assess the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield and water use across Iran.
• Evaluate the effects of CO2 fertilization on wheat yield.
• Investigate the potential for adaptation strategies to improve wheat production and self-sufficiency.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 0.25°×0.25° gridded framework covering the entire country of Iran.
• Temporal Scale: Mid-century (2030-2049) and late-century (2080-2099) projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: DSSAT-NWheat model, a process-based crop model that simulates wheat growth and development.
• Data sources: Climate data from 28 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in CMIP6, soil data from SoilGrids250m version 2.0, and population projections from the Wittgenstein Centre.

Main Results

• Irrigated wheat yields will increase by 5.1% to 17.7% under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.
• Rainfed wheat yields will increase by 14.1% to 60.9% under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.
• The national self-sufficiency ratio is projected to decline due to population growth.
• CO2 fertilization has a significant impact on wheat yield, with increases of up to 33.4% in some scenarios.

Contributions

• This study provides high-resolution projections of climate change impacts on winter wheat yield and water use across Iran.
• The results highlight the importance of considering CO2 fertilization effects when evaluating climate change impacts on agriculture.
• The study demonstrates the potential for adaptation strategies, such as shifting sowing dates and optimizing nitrogen fertilizer application, to improve wheat production and self-sufficiency.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) of Iran.

Citation

@article{Nouri2026Climate,
  author = {Nouri, Milad and Veysi, Shadman},
  title = {Climate change and the future of winter wheat in Iran: Insights for food and water security},
  journal = {Sustainable Futures},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.sftr.2026.102144},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2026.102144}
}