Romijn et al. (2026) Shifting Northern Hemisphere snowfall extremes and their physical drivers

Identification

• Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-31
• Authors: Nick Romijn, Richard Bintanja, Eveline C. van der Linden, Marlen Kolbe
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100939

Research Groups

• Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
• Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology
• University of Groningen (RUG)
• Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia

Short Summary

This study examines the changes in extreme snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere under a 2K warming scenario using the Large ENsemble TIme Slice (LENTIS) model. The results show that while light snowfall is projected to decline significantly, particularly in maritime and mid-latitude regions near the melting point, increases are expected in high-latitude maritime, select high-altitude and continental areas.

Objective

• Investigate the changes in extreme snowfall frequency and amount across the Northern Hemisphere under a 2K warming scenario.
• Examine the physical drivers of these changes, including thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere.
• Temporal Scale: Present-day (2000-2009) and future projection (2075-2084).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Large ENsemble TIme Slice (LENTIS) model.
• Data sources: LENTIS dataset, ERA-5 reanalysis dataset, MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset, JRA-3Q reanalysis dataset.

Main Results

• Light snowfall is projected to decline significantly in maritime and mid-latitude regions near the melting point.
• Extreme snowfall is expected to increase in high-latitude maritime, select high-altitude and continental areas.
• The sign and magnitude of change depend on the region's present-day seasonal mean climatological temperature.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the changes in extreme snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere under a 2K warming scenario.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both thermodynamic and dynamic processes in understanding these changes.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the University of Groningen (RUG).

Citation

@article{Romijn2026Shifting,
  author = {Romijn, Nick and Bintanja, Richard and Linden, Eveline C. van der and Kolbe, Marlen},
  title = {Shifting Northern Hemisphere snowfall extremes and their physical drivers},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100939},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100939}
}