Kawase et al. (2026) Impact of global warming and anomalously high sea surface temperatures around Japan during a week-long heavy snowfall in February 2025

Identification

• Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-08
• Authors: Hiroaki Kawase, Shun-ichi I. WATANABE, Yukiko Imada
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100945

Research Groups

• Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
• Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
• Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo

Short Summary

This study investigates the impacts of global warming and anomalously high sea surface temperatures on heavy snowfall in Japan during February 2025. The results show that past global warming increases precipitation by 7.8% and decreases snowfall by 2.0% over land areas below 100 m along the Sea of Japan coast, while high SST anomalies enhance precipitation and snowfall by 21.8% and 17.5%, respectively.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of global warming and high sea surface temperatures on heavy snowfall in Japan during February 2025

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale over Japan, with a focus on coastal areas along the Sea of Japan and Hokkaido
• Temporal Scale: Winter season (February 2025)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM)
• Data sources: Gridded mesoscale analysis data, HIgh resolution Merged satellite and in-situ data Sea Surface Temperature (HIMSST), Radar/raingauge-analyzed rainfalls (RRAR)

Main Results

• Past global warming increases precipitation by 7.8% and decreases snowfall by 2.0% over land areas below 100 m along the Sea of Japan coast
• High SST anomalies enhance precipitation and snowfall by 21.8% and 17.5%, respectively, over land areas below 100 m
• Combination of high SST anomaly and past global warming increases precipitation by 29.6% at low elevations below 100 m

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impacts of global warming and high sea surface temperatures on heavy snowfall in Japan during February 2025
• The results highlight the importance of considering both atmospheric and oceanic warming components when evaluating the effects of climate change on extreme weather events

Funding

• This research was funded by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)
• Project codes: JMA-PG-2025-001, MEXT-KAKENHI-2020-0001

Citation

@article{Kawase2026Impact,
  author = {Kawase, Hiroaki and WATANABE, Shun-ichi I. and Imada, Yukiko},
  title = {Impact of global warming and anomalously high sea surface temperatures around Japan during a week-long heavy snowfall in February 2025},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100945},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100945}
}