Justino et al. (2026) Contrasting Atmospheric River detection frameworks reveal distinct thermodynamic responses at high northern latitudes

Identification

• Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Flavio Barbosa Justino, David H. Bromwich, Kazu Takahashi, Carlos Gurjão
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100951

Research Groups

• Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil
• Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
• Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Sokendai, Hayama, Japan

Short Summary

This study assesses the relationships between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extratropical cyclones with relative thermal degree day (𝑇𝐷𝐷rel) variability and precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. The results identify AR frequency as an important statistical predictor of high-latitude thermodynamic variability.

Objective

• Investigate the coupled relationships between ARs, extratropical cyclones, precipitation, and thermal degree days (𝑇𝐷𝐷rel) across the Northern Hemisphere north of 40◦N during 1980–2022.
• Quantify the relative contributions of ARs, extratropical cyclones, and their interaction to thermodynamic variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (Northern Hemisphere high latitudes)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly (1980–2022)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally as Elongated Targets (tARget) Version 3.0 algorithm developed by Guan and Waliser (2019)
  • Takahashi and Sakazaki (TS) algorithm (Takahashi and Sakazaki, 2025)
• Data sources:
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5)
  • Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP V3) dataset
  • Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) dataset

Main Results

• AR frequency explains a substantially larger fraction of 𝑇𝐷𝐷rel variability than cyclone frequency across most seasons.
• Enhanced AR occurrence is consistently associated with positive 𝑇𝐷𝐷rel anomalies and increased precipitation.

Contributions

• This study provides new insight into both the physical role of ARs in Arctic hydroclimate and the methodological uncertainty associated with AR detection.
• The results emphasize the importance of poleward moisture transport for high-latitude thermodynamic and hydrological variability.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Justino2026Contrasting,
  author = {Justino, Flavio Barbosa and Bromwich, David H. and Takahashi, Kazu and Gurjão, Carlos},
  title = {Contrasting Atmospheric River detection frameworks reveal distinct thermodynamic responses at high northern latitudes},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100951},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100951}
}