Li et al. (2026) Projecting spatial synchrony and socioeconomic risk of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the future

Identification

• Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-15
• Authors: Xiao Li, Liping Zhang, Xiaodong Li, Chen Hu, Kaiwen Li, Lixiang Zhao, Lina Liu, Zhenyu Tang, Jun Xia
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, China
• School of National Security (School of Politics, Law and Public Administration), Shaanxi Normal University, China

Short Summary

This study projects the spatial synchrony and socioeconomic risk of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the future under different climate scenarios. The results show that the proportion of land area affected by heatwaves and extreme precipitation events increases significantly under future warming, with stronger expansion under higher-emission scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial synchronization patterns of heatwaves (HWs) and extreme precipitation events (EPEs) across the Northern Hemisphere under both historical and future climate scenarios.
• Assess the associated socioeconomic risks posed by spatially synchronous HWs and EPEs, and how these risks differ between populations with high and low levels of deprivation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Northern Hemisphere
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1979–2014), mid-term (2031–2060), and long-term (2071–2100) periods under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 15 CMIP6 models developed with distinct modules and couplers.
• Data sources: Global Unified Gauge-Based dataset for daily maximum temperature and precipitation; population, GDP, and land use data from various sources.

Main Results

• The proportion of land area affected by heatwaves and extreme precipitation events increases significantly under future warming, with stronger expansion under higher-emission scenarios.
• The spatial synchronization patterns of HWs and EPEs evolve under different future emission scenarios.
• The socioeconomic risks posed by spatially synchronous HWs and EPEs differ between populations with high and low levels of deprivation.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the spatial synchrony and socioeconomic risk of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the future under different climate scenarios.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both spatial and temporal dynamics when evaluating the risks posed by compound climate events.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837204)
• Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. IRT17R56)
• Shaanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2021KJXX-027)

Citation

@article{Li2026Projecting,
  author = {Li, Xiao and Zhang, Liping and Li, Xiaodong and Hu, Chen and Li, Kaiwen and Zhao, Lixiang and Liu, Lina and Tang, Zhenyu and Xia, Jun},
  title = {Projecting spatial synchrony and socioeconomic risk of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the future},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958}
}