Trnka et al. (2026) Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Miroslav Trnka, Jan Meitner, Jan Bálek, Song Feng, Juliana Arbelaez-Gaviria, Milan Fischer, Esther Boere, Peter Havlík, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Claas Nendel, Margarita Ruiz‐Ramos, Daniela Semerádová, Mikhail A. Semenov, Markéta Poděbradská, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Max C. A. Torbenson, Jáchym Brzezina, Zdeňěk Žalud, Gabriel George Katul, Jørgen Eivind Olesen
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006095

Research Groups

• Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna
• Climate Change Research Group, University of Reading
• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Short Summary

This study investigates the relationship between severe water scarcity events and global food prices, focusing on wheat as a case study. The results show that increasing greenhouse gas emissions lead to rising wheat prices due to expanding areas under severe water scarcity conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of severe water scarcity on global wheat prices

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global extent
• Temporal Scale: 1986–2024, with future projections up to 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Empirical characterization of severe water scarcity occurrence, climate model simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6
• Data sources: Historical wheat price data (2001–2021), climate model outputs, satellite-based precipitation and evapotranspiration index

Main Results

• Increasing greenhouse gas emissions lead to rising wheat prices due to expanding areas under severe water scarcity conditions
• A 3°C global mean temperature increase could triple the mean global wheat price compared to 2010 (after deflation)

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between severe water scarcity and food prices, highlighting the importance of considering climate change impacts on agricultural productivity

Funding

• European Research Council (ERC) grant agreement number: [insert]
• Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number: [insert]

Citation

@article{Trnka2026ClimateInduced,
  author = {Trnka, Miroslav and Meitner, Jan and Bálek, Jan and Feng, Song and Arbelaez-Gaviria, Juliana and Fischer, Milan and Boere, Esther and Havlík, Peter and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Nendel, Claas and Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita and Semerádová, Daniela and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Poděbradská, Markéta and Esper, Jan and Büntgen, Ulf and Torbenson, Max C. A. and Brzezina, Jáchym and Žalud, Zdeňěk and Katul, Gabriel George and Olesen, Jørgen Eivind},
  title = {Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events as Harbingers of Global Wheat Price},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006095},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006095}
}