Wang et al. (2026) Assessing the Susceptibility of Water Availability Due To Climate Change in China

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Qichen Wang, Fubo Zhao, Wenbo Shi, Xi Wang, Yinuo Shan, Qiang Li, Dengfeng Liu, Jun Du, Xiongpeng Tang, Yiping Wu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006119

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology

Short Summary

This study employs a Budyko framework to assess the impact of climate change on water availability across 341 prefectures in China under low- and high-emission scenarios, highlighting the decreasing susceptibility trend driven by changes in precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the dependence of water availability on climate change at the administrative-unit level in China

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Prefectural scale (341 prefectures) across China
• Temporal Scale: 2020 to 2100, under low-emission (SSP126) and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Budyko framework
• Data sources: Climate projections from CMIP6, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets from ERA5 reanalysis

Main Results

• The number of susceptible prefectures decreases under low-emission (26.1%) and high-emission (18.2%) scenarios by 2020 to 2100.
• Changes in precipitation drive the decreasing susceptibility trend, while the influence of potential evapotranspiration increases under future warming scenarios.

Contributions

• Provides region-specific insights into the impact of climate change on water availability at the administrative-unit level in China.
• Highlights the need for localized strategies in water resource management to address climate-related challenges.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837204)
• Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-DQC001)

Citation

@article{Wang2026Assessing,
  author = {Wang, Qichen and Zhao, Fubo and Shi, Wenbo and Wang, Xi and Shan, Yinuo and Li, Qiang and Liu, Dengfeng and Du, Jun and Tang, Xiongpeng and Wu, Yiping},
  title = {Assessing the Susceptibility of Water Availability Due To Climate Change in China},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006119},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006119}
}