Guo et al. (2026) Divergent Changes in Oceanic and Terrestrial Surface Water Budgets Under Global Warming: Insights From ERA5 Reanalysis

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-31
• Authors: Fuxiong Guo, Wen Wang, Xiaoqian Xu, Yuxuan Gao
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006282

Research Groups

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Short Summary

This study develops a process-level decomposition framework to quantify the global surface water budget's sensitivity to climate warming using ERA5 reanalysis. It finds an intensified water cycle with strengthened ocean-to-land moisture redistribution, where circulation and transient eddies primarily shape the spatial response, while thermodynamic effects are secondary due to compensation.

Objective

• To quantify the global surface water budget (WB) sensitivity to global mean surface temperature (GMST) using a process-level decomposition framework.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2024

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A process-level decomposition framework is developed and applied, using vertically integrated water vapor divergence (VIWVD) as a closure-consistent diagnostic.
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis

Main Results

• The global water cycle is intensifying, characterized by enhanced ocean moisture export and increased land moisture convergence, leading to strengthened ocean-to-land moisture redistribution.
• Circulation and transient eddies are the primary drivers shaping the spatial response of the water budget.
• Net thermodynamic effects are secondary due to compensating subcomponents within the decomposition.
• Regime analysis reveals circulation-driven drying in subtropical and deficit zones.
• Thermodynamic- and eddy-driven wetting is observed in surplus and high-latitude zones.
• Transitional regions exhibit weak net changes in the water budget.

Contributions

• Development of a novel process-level decomposition framework for analyzing the global surface water budget.
• Quantification of the mechanisms driving water budget sensitivity to global mean surface temperature changes.
• Provision of a transferable diagnostic tool applicable for assessing the performance of climate models and reanalysis products, and for contextualizing regional water cycle changes under warming.

Funding

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Citation

@article{Guo2026Divergent,
  author = {Guo, Fuxiong and Wang, Wen and Xu, Xiaoqian and Gao, Yuxuan},
  title = {Divergent Changes in Oceanic and Terrestrial Surface Water Budgets Under Global Warming: Insights From ERA5 Reanalysis},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006282},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006282}
}