Rateb et al. (2026) Freshwater Availability in the Mississippi River Basin and Adjacent Texas Aquifers Under Human and Climate Pressures

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-31
• Authors: Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Yadu Pokhrel, Aman Shrestha, Mengqi Jia, Bin Peng
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006653

Research Groups

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Short Summary

This study quantifies spatiotemporal water storage trajectories across the Mississippi River Basin and adjacent Texas aquifers (MRB-TX) by integrating diverse long-term datasets and climate projections. It reveals a significant longitudinal gradient in water storage, with substantial declines in arid western aquifers primarily due to irrigation and drought, contrasting with stable or gaining conditions in humid eastern regions.

Objective

• To quantify spatiotemporal water storage trajectories in the Mississippi River Basin and adjacent Texas aquifers (MRB-TX) by integrating long-term groundwater-level records, GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), irrigation water-use reanalysis, drought diagnostics, and CMIP6 precipitation projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mississippi River Basin and adjacent Texas aquifers (MRB-TX), including Central and Southern High Plains, Carrizo-Wilcox, Great Lakes, northern Plains, lower Mississippi, and Gulf Coast.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term, spanning 1950–2024 for groundwater levels, since 2002 for GRACE data, 2000–2020 for irrigation withdrawals, and projections extending to mid-century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 (for precipitation projections under SSP2-4.5 scenario).
• Data sources: Long-term groundwater-level records, GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), irrigation water-use reanalysis, drought diagnostics, and CMIP6 precipitation projections.

Main Results

• Over 1950–2024, aquifer-mean groundwater levels declined by approximately 16.7 m in the Central and Southern High Plains and approximately 15.2 m in the Carrizo–Wilcox. Humid northern and eastern aquifers remained broadly stable, with a midcontinent belt showing near-zero net change.
• GRACE-based TWSA indicates net losses of 85 ± 15 km³ since 2002 in the arid western MRB–TX, while the Great Lakes and northern Plains experienced gains of 152 ± 57 km³. Changes in the lower Mississippi and Gulf Coast were not distinguishable from zero (32 ± 30 km³).
• Irrigation withdrawals averaged approximately 52 km³ yr⁻¹ during 2000–2020, predominantly sourced from groundwater, with pronounced peaks during drought years.
• Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, most CMIP6 models project increased annual precipitation over much of the basin, driven by winter–spring wetting in humid regions, but with more uncertain summer changes, including potential drying in the arid west.
• Assuming the continuation of recent groundwater-level trends, portions of the High Plains and Carrizo–Wilcox aquifers are projected to cross a −20 m decline relative to the 1950 reference level by mid-century.
• The study identifies a clear longitudinal gradient in MRB–TX water storage, highlighting the arid southwest as the region of greatest management urgency.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, integrated quantification of spatiotemporal water storage trajectories across the vast MRB-TX using a multi-dataset approach (groundwater levels, GRACE, irrigation reanalysis, climate projections).
• Establishes and quantifies a significant longitudinal gradient in water storage changes across the basin, differentiating between arid western declines and stable/gaining humid eastern regions.
• Offers projections of future groundwater-level declines in critical western aquifers, providing crucial insights for mid-century water management.
• Identifies and emphasizes the arid southwest MRB-TX as a priority region for water resource management and policy intervention.

Funding

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Citation

@article{Rateb2026Freshwater,
  author = {Rateb, Ashraf and Scanlon, Bridget R. and Pokhrel, Yadu and Shrestha, Aman and Jia, Mengqi and Peng, Bin},
  title = {Freshwater Availability in the Mississippi River Basin and Adjacent Texas Aquifers Under Human and Climate Pressures},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006653},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006653}
}