Ghaneei et al. (2026) Four Decades of Baseflow Drought Analysis Reveals Varying Contributions of Climatic Drivers and Physical Controls

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Parnian Ghaneei, Ehsan Foroumandi, Kerstin Stahl, Hoori Ajami, Niko Wanders, Hamid Moradkhani
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006934

Research Groups

Not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the long-term evolution and drivers of baseflow droughts (BFDs) across the Contiguous United States, revealing significant regional disparities and identifying distinct climatic and physical controls on BFD frequency, duration, and intensity.

Objective

• To quantify and analyze the long-term evolution of baseflow drought (BFD) characteristics across the Contiguous United States.
• To identify and rank the climatic and physical drivers of BFD using explainable machine learning models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Contiguous United States (CONUS)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term daily baseflow values, with a specific focus on trends during the past decade.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Explainable machine learning models
• Data sources: DeepBase data set (for long-term daily baseflow values)

Main Results

• Notable regional disparities in BFDs were observed: western regions, particularly the Southwest, experienced increased frequency and prolonged durations, while much of the eastern areas showed declining trends.
• During the past decade, BFD frequency was primarily governed by anomalies in the atmospheric water balance and by soil properties.
• BFD duration was mainly influenced by hydrogeologic attributes.
• BFD intensity was most strongly modulated by topographic setting.
• The study highlights the non-stationary and complex nature of BFD mechanisms.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive quantification and analysis of the long-term evolution of baseflow drought characteristics across the entire Contiguous United States.
• Identifies and ranks the specific climatic and physical drivers influencing BFD frequency, duration, and intensity, revealing their distinct roles.
• Highlights significant regional disparities in BFD trends and the complex, non-stationary nature of their underlying mechanisms.
• Offers practical implications for water resource management and drought adaptation strategies by improving the understanding of BFD evolution and its drivers.

Funding

Not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Ghaneei2026Four,
  author = {Ghaneei, Parnian and Foroumandi, Ehsan and Stahl, Kerstin and Ajami, Hoori and Wanders, Niko and Moradkhani, Hamid},
  title = {Four Decades of Baseflow Drought Analysis Reveals Varying Contributions of Climatic Drivers and Physical Controls},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006934},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006934}
}