Hu et al. (2026) Multi‐Indicator Assessment to Assess the Increasing Impacts of Compound Dry and Hot Events on Global Wheat Yield

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-31
• Authors: Jinpeng Hu, Rastislav Skalský, Gangfeng ZHANG, Christian Folberth, Peijun Shi
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007084

Research Groups

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the evolution of compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) during global wheat growing seasons from 1981 to 2020 and their impact on wheat yield. It finds significant increases in CDHE frequency, duration, and intensity globally, leading to negative yield anomalies, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, with specific multi-indicator combinations proving most effective for detection.

Objective

• To assess changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) during the global wheat growing season and their impacts on wheat yield in major wheat-producing regions from 1981 to 2020.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on major wheat-producing regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2020 (40 years), daily data aggregated to growing season.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), Standardized Temperature Index (STI), Standardized Soil Temperature Index (SSTI).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Significant increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of global CDHEs were observed.
• The most pronounced increases in CDHEs occurred in arid and semiarid regions, specifically Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey.
• Different indicator combinations showed varying sensitivities:
  • SSI–SSTI was most sensitive to CDHE frequency changes.
  • SPEI–SSTI best captured CDHE intensity and duration.
  • SPI–STI provided conservative estimates of CDHEs.
• When CDHEs accounted for more than 10% of the growing season, over 70% of wheat areas experienced negative yield anomalies, with an average anomaly of -6.3%.
• Canada, Australia, and Central Asia were severely impacted by CDHEs.
• Highly irrigated regions (e.g., China and India) were less impacted by CDHEs.
• Indicator combinations incorporating evapotranspiration and soil moisture (SPEI–SSTI, SSI–SSTI) were most strongly correlated with wheat yield anomalies.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the evolution and impacts of compound dry and hot events on global wheat yield using multiple drought and heat indicators.
• It highlights the regional variability of CDHE impacts and the effectiveness of specific multi-indicator combinations (SPEI–SSTI, SSI–SSTI) for detecting compound stress relevant to yield anomalies.
• It emphasizes the importance of multi-indicator assessments and regional adaptations for developing climate-resilient agricultural strategies.

Funding

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Hu2026MultiIndicator,
  author = {Hu, Jinpeng and Skalský, Rastislav and ZHANG, Gangfeng and Folberth, Christian and Shi, Peijun},
  title = {Multi‐Indicator Assessment to Assess the Increasing Impacts of Compound Dry and Hot Events on Global Wheat Yield},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007084},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007084}
}