Xu et al. (2026) Escalating Extreme River Discharge Events Driven by Precipitation Changes in the Yangtze River Basin

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-30
• Authors: Xiaoke Xu, Anning Huang, Yinghong Jing, Chunlei Gu, Xiaojun She, Yao Li
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007133

Research Groups

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics and precipitation drivers of 3-hourly extreme river discharge events (ERDEs) across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2019, revealing a significant increasing trend in ERDEs and distinct local/upstream precipitation patterns linked to specific atmospheric processes in different sub-regions.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of 3-hourly extreme river discharge events (ERDEs) across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2019.
• To explore the nonlinear relationships between cumulative precipitation in local/upstream regions and the number of ERDEs using a Random Forest model, aiming to identify precipitation patterns and associated atmospheric processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yangtze River Basin (YRB), including specific sub-regions such as the eastern Tibetan Plateau, middle to lower YRB, Dongting Lake Plain, western Sichuan Basin, Poyang Lake Plain, western Sichuan Plateau, central-eastern Sichuan Basin, Wushan Mountain range, and lower Yangtze River Plain.
• Temporal Scale: 2000 to 2019 (20 years), focusing on 3-hourly extreme river discharge events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Random Forest model.
• Data sources: Cumulative precipitation data (local and upstream regions), and extreme river discharge event (ERDE) records. Specific sources (e.g., satellite, observation, reanalysis) for precipitation and discharge are not detailed in the abstract.

Main Results

• ERDEs predominantly occurred in the upper reaches of the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the middle to lower YRB, spanning from March to November, with a peak in July.
• A significant increasing trend in the occurrence of ERDEs was observed over the 20-year period in the YRB.
• In the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Dongting Lake Plain, ERDEs were primarily affected by upstream precipitation, associated with the plateau vortex and backwards-tilting trough.
• In contrast, ERDEs in the western Sichuan Basin and Poyang Lake Plain were mainly driven by local precipitation, linked to the forward-tilting trough and Jianghuai cyclone.
• Regions such as the western Sichuan Plateau, central-eastern Sichuan Basin, Wushan Mountain range, and lower Yangtze River Plain were influenced by both upstream and local precipitation, attributed to the westerly trough, southwest vortex, double-vortex, and convective system on the edge of the Northwestern Pacific Subtropical High, respectively.

Contributions

• Provides a novel perspective on identifying early warning signals of flood risk across the Yangtze River Basin.
• Offers a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of 3-hourly ERDEs and their drivers over a 20-year period.
• Identifies distinct precipitation patterns (local vs. upstream) and their associated atmospheric processes responsible for ERDEs in different sub-regions of the YRB.

Funding

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Xu2026Escalating,
  author = {Xu, Xiaoke and Huang, Anning and Jing, Yinghong and Gu, Chunlei and She, Xiaojun and Li, Yao},
  title = {Escalating Extreme River Discharge Events Driven by Precipitation Changes in the Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007133},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007133}
}