Guan et al. (2026) Increasing Population and Cropland Exposure to Human‐Induced Sequential Heatwave‐Downpour Events

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-27
• Authors: Yuxin Guan, Wei Li, Zhicong Yin, Huijun J. Wang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007442

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the anthropogenic influence on the increasing trend of compound sequential heatwave-downpour (SHD) events across the Northern Hemisphere and projects future population and cropland exposure. It finds that anthropogenic influences, primarily greenhouse gas emissions, account for approximately 82.2% of the increase in affected areas, with future exposure projected to increase nearly 8-fold under a high-emission scenario, predominantly driven by climate change.

Objective

• To understand the anthropogenic influence on the increasing trend of compound sequential heatwave-downpour (SHD) events.
• To provide constrained projections of future population and cropland exposure to SHD events under different emission scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Hemisphere
• Temporal Scale: Current climate baseline (1991–2020); Long-term projection (2081–2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not explicitly stated in the abstract.
• Data sources: Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Main Results

• The affected area of compound sequential heatwave-downpour (SHD) events has notably grown across the Northern Hemisphere.
• Anthropogenic influences are responsible for approximately 82.2% of the increase in affected areas of SHD events.
• Greenhouse gas emissions are identified as the primary contributor to the anthropogenic influence.
• Under a high-emission scenario, the exposure of population and cropland to SHD events is projected to increase nearly 8-fold in the long term (2081–2100) compared to the current climate baseline (1991–2020).
• Climate change, rather than population or land use change, is the dominant driver of this increased exposure.

Contributions

• Quantifies the significant anthropogenic contribution (82.2%) to the increase in SHD affected areas, specifically attributing it to greenhouse gas emissions.
• Provides constrained projections of future population and cropland exposure to SHD events, highlighting a substantial increase under high-emission scenarios.
• Identifies climate change as the dominant driver of increased exposure to SHD events, distinguishing its impact from population or land use changes.
• Emphasizes the critical role of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in mitigating the impacts of SHD events.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Guan2026Increasing,
  author = {Guan, Yuxin and Li, Wei and Yin, Zhicong and Wang, Huijun J.},
  title = {Increasing Population and Cropland Exposure to Human‐Induced Sequential Heatwave‐Downpour Events},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007442},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007442}
}